Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdb807bdf50d6d26c0f1c5c48a82f65a3632b3570f3ddcd343c30d43ceda6e17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,940 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07e9…c239backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d55…7fb3backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…49b6backed Over | 49c | 6,240$3,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,182.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…3b58backed Under | 51c | 4,667$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…12e4backed Over | 49c | 4,108$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…8967backed Over | 50c | 4,048$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.19 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 50c | 2,269$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.29 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd462…eaecbacked Under | 51c | 2,220$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Under | 50c | 2,056$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.44 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…1ffebacked Under | 51c | 2,040$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e1…d3bbbacked Under | 51c | 1,737$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…42a7backed Under | 53c | 772$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…968bbacked Over | 47c | 772$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…5266backed Under | 50c | 528.74$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…69c2backed Over | 50c | 528$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bf…f357backed Under | 50c | 430$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…234fbacked Over | 49c | 315.95$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda5…dbfabacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…f78abacked Under | 53c | 298.3$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 47c | 233.11$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.55 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…d209backed Under | 48c | 45.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
- Total Kills Over/Under 44.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 46.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 47.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.