Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6daa9570817a789ebd8bc3c2be7d4e0b7527d91987edc0c1a2c87c0558c3e3f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Aurora, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $465,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $465,195 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 249 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a54…50fdbacked Aurora | 0c | 52,158$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 33,457$19,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,386.57 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Aurora | 43c | 26,639$11,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,491.6 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 39c | 19,665$7,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,670.88 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Aurora | 43c | 19,304$8,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,285.68 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 14,214$8,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,031.83 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora | 43c | 13,958$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Aurora | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Aurora | 42c | 9,000$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,779.96 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3aa…1485backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 8,727$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,927.15 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 8,184$4,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,444.83 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Aurora | 17c | 8,000$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.83 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 42c | 7,185$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.2 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 6,544$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,743.99 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 6,051$3,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.79 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Tundra Esports | 72c | 4,828$3,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.48 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 4,778$2,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.75 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Aurora | 10c | 4,737$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.95 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 4,528$3,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.3 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 4,363$2,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.74 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 4,297$2,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.17 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 4,203$2,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.11 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 42c | 4,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.98 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 35c | 3,567$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.27 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 19c | 3,264$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.36 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.99 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Aurora | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.98 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 2,800$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.38 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 2,630$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.03 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Aurora | 42c | 2,142$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.45 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 2,068$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.12 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked Aurora | 8c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 145 | 15.2%22 W · 123 L | -16.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 1,900$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.05 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa23…33e0backed Aurora | 44c | 1,878$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.87 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Aurora | 44c | 1,798$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.14 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 29c | 1,787$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.17 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 1,755$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.43 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Tundra Esports | 79c | 1,716$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.45 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Tundra Esports | 73c | 1,673$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.79 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Aurora | 10c | 1,578$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Tundra Esports | 77c | 1,429$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.33 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Aurora | 43c | 1,407$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 1,346$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.3 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…c30dbacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.99 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 1,191$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.62 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 1,043$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.35 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 1,041$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.36 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.01 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 1,000$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.01 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…1f5cbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…1069backed Aurora | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 1,000$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.55 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 999.97$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…1d79backed Aurora | 35c | 999.37$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…8f3fbacked Tundra Esports | 54c | 960$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.6 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed Aurora | 45c | 921.99$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.9 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 900$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Aurora | 27c | 857.24$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.96 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora | 42c | 833.55$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.09 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Aurora | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Aurora | 43c | 814.79$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.36 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c7…bf04backed Tundra Esports | 69c | 800.82$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.82 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 791.36$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.11 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Aurora | 41c | 781.7$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.89 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed Aurora | 44c | 739.49$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.83 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Aurora | 44c | 735.6$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.66 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed Aurora | 45c | 722.22$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Aurora | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 2c | 694.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Tundra Esports | 63c | 667.82$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.06 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 666.32$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.32 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 654.62$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.62 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Aurora | 5c | 626.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 623.64$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.64 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 26c | 600$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…b149backed Aurora | 4c | 599.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…87c3backed Aurora | 42c | 579.66$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.46 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Aurora | 42c | 566.19$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.74 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 564.5$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.74 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 535.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.8 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked Aurora | 42c | 508.57$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.6 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Aurora | 6c | 500.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…9bbcbacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora | 43c | 499.98$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 497$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Aurora | 41c | 485.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.25 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x820e…9db7backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 468.15$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Aurora | 4c | 466.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Aurora | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Aurora | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked Aurora | 5c | 459.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 35c | 449.11$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.28 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc159…f3c8backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 437.2$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.84 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…fb0bbacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 418.18$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.18 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Aurora | 35c | 406$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Aurora | 15c | 400.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 400$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 44.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 46.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 47.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.