Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ebe9a239c8ffd77f03a08f6a6564f40bef1c28782b28ea4040b514b6c17135b

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Auroraof Aurora, Tundra Esports
Resolved: Mar 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $403,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,719 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 377 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora	40c	45,115$17,982 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27,132.72	551	57%314 W · 237 L	+17.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora	45c	29,152$13,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,151.59	545	56.5%308 W · 237 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Tundra Esports	58c	22,061$12,692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,692.35	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Tundra Esports	60c	20,000$12,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,999.88	426	50%213 W · 213 L	+4.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Aurora	45c	12,767$5,685 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,082.15	714	54.5%389 W · 325 L	+55.6wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Tundra Esports	60c	11,619$6,974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,974	534	51.7%276 W · 258 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Tundra Esports	60c	11,111$6,665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,665.06	328	54.9%180 W · 148 L	+11.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Tundra Esports	52c	10,000$5,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,200	360	41.4%149 W · 211 L	-22.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora	40c	8,769$3,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,269.25	965	57.4%554 W · 411 L	+49.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Aurora	49c	7,468$3,631 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,836.93	226	43.8%99 W · 127 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Tundra Esports	57c	6,600$3,761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,760.99	96	57.3%55 W · 41 L	+8.5wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora	41c	6,464$2,648 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,815.96	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Aurora	31c	5,966$1,869 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,097.35	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Tundra Esports	53c	5,769$3,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,042.88	91	53.8%49 W · 42 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d2…cc46backed Aurora	41c	5,628$2,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,328.21	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacce…72e8backed Tundra Esports	54c	5,519$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-5.6wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2199…f619backed Tundra Esports	55c	5,000$2,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,750	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-2.8wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Tundra Esports	27c	3,820$1,015 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,015.39	54	31.5%17 W · 37 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Aurora	46c	3,646$1,682 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,964.24	368	51.6%190 W · 178 L	+25.7wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Tundra Esports	61c	3,235$1,980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,979.84	2,828	43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L	-39.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Tundra Esports	72c	3,206$2,322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,322.14	186	61.8%115 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	66cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Aurora	44c	2,635$1,150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,484.59	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Tundra Esports	52c	2,594$1,360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,360.36	412	42.2%174 W · 238 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Tundra Esports	63c	2,500$1,575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,574.98	799	59.4%475 W · 324 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Aurora	58c	2,466$1,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,046.62	303	56.4%171 W · 132 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Aurora	41c	2,434$999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,435.49	626	50.5%316 W · 310 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora	43c	2,419$1,036 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,382.79	605	52.6%318 W · 287 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora	32c	2,356$751 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,604.93	1,521	37.9%576 W · 945 L	-57.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa23…33e0backed Aurora	53c	2,209$1,165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,043.7	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	39cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Tundra Esports	61c	2,147$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	201	56.7%114 W · 87 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Tundra Esports	60c	2,039$1,221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,221	88	45.5%40 W · 48 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora	38c	2,000$766 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,233.53	804	43.9%353 W · 451 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Tundra Esports	59c	2,000$1,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,179.98	201	59.7%120 W · 81 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora	52c	1,954$1,009 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$944.86	920	56.4%519 W · 401 L	+78.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Tundra Esports	58c	1,850$1,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,072.91	96	36.5%35 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Aurora	48c	1,841$888 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$952.86	183	62.8%115 W · 68 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Aurora	44c	1,806$797 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008.46	666	62.2%414 W · 252 L	+60.2wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Tundra Esports	67c	1,742$1,172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,172	66	37.9%25 W · 41 L	-6.0wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Aurora	30c	1,735$517 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,217.9	508	32.9%167 W · 341 L	-14.8wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Aurora	42c	1,731$728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,003.09	388	55.2%214 W · 174 L	+29.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Tundra Esports	64c	1,725$1,104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,104	130	45.4%59 W · 71 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Tundra Esports	60c	1,667$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	113	59.3%67 W · 46 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed Aurora	68c	1,658$1,136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$522.6	196	64.8%127 W · 69 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4533…ef2bbacked Tundra Esports	59c	1,562$926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$926.45	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed Tundra Esports	48c	1,554$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$752.56	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Tundra Esports	36c	1,500$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.54	113	46.9%53 W · 60 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Aurora	47c	1,500$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$797.73	380	49.2%187 W · 193 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+168.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Aurora	41c	1,417$587 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$829.49	517	51.3%265 W · 252 L	+21.8wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora	55c	1,404$774 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$629.77	774	58.5%453 W · 321 L	+75.1wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed Tundra Esports	60c	1,328$797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$797	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Tundra Esports	58c	1,300$759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$758.7	603	49.9%301 W · 302 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Aurora	37c	1,267$463 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$803.39	441	49.4%218 W · 223 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Tundra Esports	62c	1,262$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$782.71	129	48.1%62 W · 67 L	-9.3wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Aurora	40c	1,250$497 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$753.41	150	51.3%77 W · 73 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03e…da65backed Tundra Esports	69c	1,215$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$836.83	66	50%33 W · 33 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb17a…c30dbacked Tundra Esports	58c	1,200$696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$695.97	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Tundra Esports	60c	1,195$713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713	552	51.6%285 W · 267 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Tundra Esports	56c	1,155$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$641.2	146	57.5%84 W · 62 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Aurora	37c	1,086$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$684.44	153	45.8%70 W · 83 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d31…0286backed Aurora	42c	1,060$445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$614.52	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Aurora	44c	1,026$453 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572.52	227	27.3%62 W · 165 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62c7…d64fbacked Tundra Esports	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	72	25%18 W · 54 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Tundra Esports	60c	1,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	536	52.6%282 W · 254 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Aurora	44c	960.34$425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$535.34	485	39.2%190 W · 295 L	-8.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Aurora	41c	957.35$391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$566.61	115	49.6%57 W · 58 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed Tundra Esports	64c	918.03$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.54	156	50.6%79 W · 77 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Aurora	34c	909.99$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$601.69	242	51.7%125 W · 117 L	+21.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Aurora	35c	908.59$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$594.93	130	27.7%36 W · 94 L	-9.3wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c57…47aabacked Aurora	42c	906.14$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$527.88	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Tundra Esports	67c	877.34$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.91	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Tundra Esports	59c	858.72$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.17	213	46.5%99 W · 114 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x823b…59e9backed Tundra Esports	63c	828.05$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Tundra Esports	59c	822.64$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.36	119	60.5%72 W · 47 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Aurora	23c	799.98$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$617.99	335	49.9%167 W · 168 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Tundra Esports	60c	799.84$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.04	121	56.2%68 W · 53 L	+7.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Tundra Esports	58c	799.82$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463.9	285	49.1%140 W · 145 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x688e…148dbacked Tundra Esports	75c	797.71$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports	62c	777.98$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.49	779	41.1%320 W · 459 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Tundra Esports	58c	774.14$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449	99	59.6%59 W · 40 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Aurora	39c	769.23$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$469.23	254	57.9%147 W · 107 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora	56c	763.96$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.17	576	54.5%314 W · 262 L	+29.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Tundra Esports	57c	759.27$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.79	522	43.9%229 W · 293 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…1d79backed Aurora	40c	741.72$293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.53	113	31.9%36 W · 77 L	-7.1wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed Tundra Esports	56c	730.89$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.55	86	55.8%48 W · 38 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Tundra Esports	56c	720.03$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Aurora	41c	713.49$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.11	165	50.9%84 W · 81 L	-6.1wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Tundra Esports	57c	695.98$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.92	144	43.8%63 W · 81 L	-6.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Tundra Esports	57c	668.93$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.37	416	55.3%230 W · 186 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Aurora	50c	666$333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333	187	45.5%85 W · 102 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Aurora	41c	661.86$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.67	101	41.6%42 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Tundra Esports	60c	658.3$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.69	386	53.9%208 W · 178 L	+10.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Tundra Esports	63c	654.42$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.75	554	57.8%320 W · 234 L	+12.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked Aurora	35c	650.69$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$423.88	241	37.3%90 W · 151 L	+9.7wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Tundra Esports	6c	650$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.94	613	2.1%13 W · 600 L	-23.4wins	-0.04per pick	6cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Aurora	45c	648.94$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.89	336	45.5%153 W · 183 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda1c…15f2backed Tundra Esports	78c	627.02$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.09	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Aurora	39c	606.58$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$370.26	61	45.9%28 W · 33 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Aurora	34c	605$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400.75	656	25.6%168 W · 488 L	+14.7wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Tundra Esports	53c	600$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	1,248	44.4%554 W · 694 L	+17.0wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tundra Esports	52c	592$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.55	605	42.6%258 W · 347 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTundra Esports won
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 44.5 in Game 1?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 46.5 in Game 1?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 47.5 in Game 1?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 1?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 1?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 1?Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event