TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$174,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,985 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked PARIVISION58c24,379$14,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,306.0755157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION57c12,735$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,434.6854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed PARIVISION64c9,855$6,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,536.2511359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere35c8,609$3,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,044.822,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere45c8,326$3,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,741.4596557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Natus Vincere41c4,608$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.4413558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed PARIVISION76c4,365$3,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.2811854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Natus Vincere45c4,103$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.3415946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Natus Vincere46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84020159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Natus Vincere42c3,623$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.4316050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Natus Vincere38c3,302$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.5333041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc5…d1a4backed Natus Vincere45c3,111$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4009045.6%41 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e8a…42a0backed Natus Vincere45c3,111$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.861258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION67c3,099$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.241,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Natus Vincere43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29022643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Natus Vincere25c2,529$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.2821264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere31c2,496$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.22,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed Natus Vincere36c2,199$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7936145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Natus Vincere45c1,900$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85516142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked PARIVISION79c1,874$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.999145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked PARIVISION55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.116248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Natus Vincere42c1,777$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.5756542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed PARIVISION55c1,762$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.955751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed PARIVISION65c1,359$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.5880443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363a…4a8dbacked PARIVISION58c1,294$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.678258.5%48 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Natus Vincere45c1,288$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57510141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Natus Vincere40c1,255$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Natus Vincere4c1,170$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.26132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed PARIVISION59c1,117$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.5220156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed PARIVISION57c1,075$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.434252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked PARIVISION57c1,040$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.27639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed PARIVISION55c1,033$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.856852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d97…18aebacked PARIVISION59c1,019$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.42560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Natus Vincere45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45028650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed PARIVISION56c999.99$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.992646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Natus Vincere36c990.93$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.1118661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere36c964$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.691,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Natus Vincere44c950.68$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.7113455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked Natus Vincere43c950$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4069257.6%53 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf96f…b5e5backed Natus Vincere45c913.99$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.34341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Natus Vincere37c909.46$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.56043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed PARIVISION57c903.26$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.742035%7 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed PARIVISION58c889.81$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.729557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed Natus Vincere11c876.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Natus Vincere26c767.1$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011239.3%44 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Natus Vincere45c749.36$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.9638653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION58c707.02$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.821,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere45c700$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31542145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf795…5e34backed Natus Vincere20c699.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.993727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Natus Vincere45c670.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked PARIVISION58c641.6$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.611,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61a5…caa6backed Natus Vincere45c617$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.954841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Natus Vincere41c604.79$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2491,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c5a…acc3backed PARIVISION56c540$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.61457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb36…113fbacked Natus Vincere44c540$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.61442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere41c526.66$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.1388166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed PARIVISION58c520.94$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.945158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed PARIVISION74c509.31$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.0819664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked PARIVISION60c502.93$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.9318156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Natus Vincere44c494.69$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.668957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked PARIVISION66c490.73$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.9152649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x676f…43c1backed PARIVISION56c480$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.21540%6 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-35.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b51…2b54backed Natus Vincere44c480$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed PARIVISION66c466.68$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0843647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Natus Vincere44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005240.4%21 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere17c445.67$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.062,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked PARIVISION79c409.99$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7677458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed PARIVISION55c399.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Natus Vincere45c382.53$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.1453844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Natus Vincere44c352.1$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9260349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere43c350$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked PARIVISION61c338.74$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.4216550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Natus Vincere35c323.47$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9138855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked PARIVISION58c319.79$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.5416440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Natus Vincere20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Natus Vincere37c283.85$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1913733.6%46 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93aa…6ac0backed Natus Vincere37c273.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.184438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713c…b373backed PARIVISION78c273.46$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b9…346fbacked PARIVISION76c269.94$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.691861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed PARIVISION80c261.36$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4725457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Natus Vincere40c250.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3245046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Natus Vincere41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010659.4%63 W · 43 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c18…fadbbacked Natus Vincere8c236.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.511323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-52.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Natus Vincere39c230.7$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9860251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked PARIVISION61c228.84$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2914965.8%98 W · 51 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked PARIVISION56c227.9$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1413752.6%72 W · 65 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked PARIVISION62c204.84$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8420452.9%108 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Natus Vincere38c196.11$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Natus Vincere39c189.74$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.346649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Natus Vincere44c189.38$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3373743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Natus Vincere17c183.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.633622.2%8 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95d6…9aeabacked PARIVISION78c179.89$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.312132.2%39 W · 82 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f46…cddbbacked PARIVISION57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4424052.1%125 W · 115 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed PARIVISION55c172.46$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6144645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbffe…5664backed Natus Vincere47c171.08$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed PARIVISION62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2955457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked PARIVISION61c156.34$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3412348%59 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Natus Vincere42c154.18$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6586451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Natus Vincere44c150$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6645052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.