Dota2 · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8784c994449a8273d3ebf66da92c82d693148f0a7f4ff0f2d564565142bf00f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,931 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 4 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fdd…d385backed Under | 76c | 1,654$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 4c | 663.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.5 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked Over | 7c | 167.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,652%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed Over | 10c | 130.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.68per pick | 7cpaid | +793.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 2?this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StagePARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 46.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 47.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.