TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astralisof Astralis, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,085,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,085,816 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 805 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked FaZe54c323,007$173,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173,592.7342440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Astralis44c165,980$72,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,094.094548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fe3…fec3backed FaZe49c104,820$51,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,324.08580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Astralis53c100,000$53,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,610.177147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Astralis59c97,340$57,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,169.8322049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Astralis51c67,500$34,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,788.0830340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Astralis53c54,395$28,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,565.645048%24 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Astralis52c43,591$22,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,885.7123355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Astralis54c40,700$21,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,722.6314441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FaZe41c30,790$12,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,564.393,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Astralis53c23,000$12,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,809.992045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked FaZe40c19,979$8,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,045.141136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked FaZe47c15,117$7,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,126.2735850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Astralis52c13,769$7,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,558.6283652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Astralis49c12,575$6,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,396.941942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Astralis52c11,380$5,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,462.398050%40 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed FaZe46c10,857$5,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,043.7724846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xceec…4ad9backed Astralis54c10,692$5,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,918.452556%14 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc6…9df6backed FaZe48c10,451$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+58.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Astralis53c10,322$5,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,851.3372453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Astralis40c10,079$4,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,003.861861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed FaZe53c9,981$5,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,324.096243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Astralis54c9,000$4,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,14036152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed FaZe45c9,000$4,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,089.9612441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed FaZe14c8,831$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed FaZe46c8,697$4,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.7217240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Astralis52c8,000$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,84035153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Astralis54c8,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,68023653.8%127 W · 109 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Astralis52c7,718$4,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,704.6719645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Astralis60c7,327$4,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,923.211550.4%58 W · 57 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Astralis54c7,113$3,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,305.3622448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Astralis53c6,654$3,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,127.571546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd2…f8a0backed FaZe47c6,624$3,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,122.7618752.4%98 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Astralis51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9405848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed FaZe46c5,969$2,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,762.0942142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed FaZe47c5,934$2,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,789.179256.5%52 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Astralis55c5,700$3,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,565.5519455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b9…133ebacked Astralis54c5,209$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,397.12650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed FaZe34c5,054$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.319549.7%97 W · 98 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb4…48bebacked FaZe40c5,054$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,022.855341.5%22 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Astralis51c4,998$2,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,458.3836645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf81e…c4b9backed FaZe47c4,961$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.94955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked Astralis54c4,759$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.1122550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked FaZe15c4,745$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.1939249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a9c5backed Astralis53c4,647$2,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.673953.8%21 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed FaZe47c4,488$2,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.8111633.6%39 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked FaZe50c4,482$2,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,235.42650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed FaZe48c4,400$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1128847.7%42 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x027a…f23abacked FaZe46c4,384$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed FaZe45c4,247$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.6741649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Astralis53c4,220$2,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,983.9910252%53 W · 49 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Astralis50c4,182$2,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,074.061,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Astralis51c4,144$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,034.085349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Astralis59c4,134$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.7615760.5%95 W · 62 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed FaZe47c4,029$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.7271645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x562b…f85fbacked Astralis50c3,989$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,006.145855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked Astralis53c3,945$2,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,85413756.2%77 W · 60 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Astralis56c3,944$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.7737646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Astralis54c3,843$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.5915249.3%75 W · 77 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FaZe37c3,657$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.767,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Astralis47c3,627$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.711,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf801…901cbacked FaZe47c3,517$1,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,652.972250%11 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fbb…39dabacked FaZe40c3,506$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.569349.5%46 W · 47 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+32.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked FaZe47c3,500$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.845,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Astralis54c3,484$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.554759.6%28 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8fd…40ebbacked FaZe47c3,292$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.181533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-31.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed FaZe55c3,244$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.1411361.1%69 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed Astralis52c3,225$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5483855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked FaZe46c3,223$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.5910945%49 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed FaZe46c3,217$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.8946843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed FaZe48c3,181$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.74955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FaZe38c3,178$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.0288746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked Astralis53c3,065$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.534452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05c…66b9backed FaZe1c3,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40300%0 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Astralis54c3,000$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.3346949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed FaZe34c2,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Astralis54c2,854$1,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.686836.8%25 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-22.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FaZe47c2,729$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.5281843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71dd…31ebbacked Astralis55c2,707$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.472075%15 W · 5 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+63.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Astralis77c2,636$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6012,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked FaZe48c2,213$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.2747738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked FaZe46c2,203$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.3412328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked FaZe47c2,106$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020458.3%119 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed FaZe48c2,081$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99920946.9%98 W · 111 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Astralis55c2,055$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.8625845.7%118 W · 140 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Astralis52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96029851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c10…544abacked FaZe1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Astralis54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92026952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked FaZe46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9209352.7%49 W · 44 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed FaZe46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9201,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5f…9d3cbacked FaZe29c1,993$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.21540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed Astralis54c1,900$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8749246.7%43 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Astralis58c1,899$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.282,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked FaZe47c1,857$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.922152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4027…1afbbacked Astralis54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.851758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x059e…54d1backed FaZe60c1,836$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.065955.9%33 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c2d…6443backed Astralis53c1,828$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked FaZe45c1,826$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.695354.7%29 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x389b…8d69backed Astralis55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.182339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed FaZe45c1,773$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.3555043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.