TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof Heroic, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$419,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $419,580 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 377 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Heroic44c46,500$20,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,523.7416147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked BetBoom Team52c46,142$23,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,161.5355157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Heroic48c45,597$21,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,880.5428748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed BetBoom Team56c29,476$16,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,976.1954556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed BetBoom Team56c20,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,80011854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Heroic15c15,264$2,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,280.5671454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Heroic41c12,593$5,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,17653451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Heroic46c9,797$4,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,502.296557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed BetBoom Team54c7,573$4,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,481.3951751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed BetBoom Team55c7,110$3,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,208.2242650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Heroic48c6,079$2,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,916.29657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked BetBoom Team53c5,742$3,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,687.728258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed BetBoom Team64c5,357$3,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,947.812156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Heroic21c5,043$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.3113020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic30c4,879$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.61,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Heroic36c4,211$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.563333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed BetBoom Team68c3,786$2,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.2633041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed Heroic44c3,383$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004932.7%16 W · 33 L-7.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Heroic48c3,292$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,58015345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba45…87f3backed Heroic45c3,200$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4402853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked BetBoom Team74c3,106$2,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.8841242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic43c3,026$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.9989440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked BetBoom Team66c3,022$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0263953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed BetBoom Team53c2,857$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.3160349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Heroic41c2,854$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.0616142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BetBoom Team51c2,766$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.262,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Heroic48c2,702$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30020156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b6…3799backed Heroic46c2,429$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.272040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7d…0bf1backed Heroic39c2,343$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.02757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked BetBoom Team77c2,176$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.216665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed BetBoom Team66c2,132$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.4146649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Heroic35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Heroic26c1,977$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.7451049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Heroic39c1,955$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.272,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4302…4f64backed Heroic45c1,900$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Heroic45c1,893$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.7731545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Heroic27c1,781$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.5118362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked Heroic46c1,657$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.418544.7%38 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Heroic18c1,631$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29965625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked BetBoom Team54c1,539$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.936041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed BetBoom Team55c1,530$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.1913455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked BetBoom Team66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51038049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Heroic48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.9953652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Heroic28c1,477$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.9518661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c9…dfeabacked Heroic47c1,347$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.012759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2ef…c9bcbacked Heroic11c1,306$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.734334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x49b3…b137backed BetBoom Team55c1,300$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick46cpaid+98.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Heroic2c1,229$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4640014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61e9…cb1bbacked BetBoom Team52c1,200$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5762450%12 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed BetBoom Team52c1,200$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57658744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BetBoom Team56c1,190$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.961,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…944ebacked Heroic46c1,152$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked BetBoom Team65c1,137$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.4377458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked BetBoom Team52c1,122$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.6556542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa042…5539backed BetBoom Team80c1,101$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.8217454%94 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Heroic28c1,074$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.7219147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked BetBoom Team79c1,068$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.1848539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Heroic35c1,050$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.8813027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed BetBoom Team61c1,045$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.7814443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Heroic39c1,036$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.961,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed BetBoom Team65c1,033$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.5411757.3%67 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Heroic45c1,000$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.711346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed BetBoom Team50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50014854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Heroic10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed BetBoom Team56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44022727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Heroic46c962.62$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.6555751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed BetBoom Team41c949.99$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.814751.7%76 W · 71 L+11.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked BetBoom Team54c945.37$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.374533.3%15 W · 30 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked BetBoom Team72c930.19$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.4592056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BetBoom Team62c928.4$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.751,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed BetBoom Team65c926.19$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.5238653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Heroic27c902.12$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.5252243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Heroic42c858.3$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.1525457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed BetBoom Team67c845.79$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.797342.5%31 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Heroic48c834.38$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39910334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Heroic49c830.52$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.4414657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked BetBoom Team73c813.6$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.615461.7%95 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed BetBoom Team54c800$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3685259.6%31 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Heroic8c800$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6413732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked BetBoom Team78c787.06$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.0260646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Heroic22c785.32$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.7850832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8247…ee42backed BetBoom Team51c723.35$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.44862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed BetBoom Team62c697.36$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2652250%11 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic30c691.85$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.711,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Heroic35c682.59$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.4778516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5565…e5d6backed Heroic57c670.3$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.163764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked BetBoom Team52c669.52$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.8416550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb071…a76ebacked BetBoom Team52c650$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked BetBoom Team78c643.69$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.6912948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed BetBoom Team66c623.92$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.4514048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Heroic45c609.69$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.159145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6135…efa0backed Heroic36c606.88$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.852842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Heroic33c604.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20048954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed BetBoom Team65c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21028549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cbb…87c3backed Heroic5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302119%4 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-39.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fd4…676ebacked Heroic48c589.65$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.03742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7c…5a30backed BetBoom Team59c579.7$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.19544.2%42 W · 53 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Heroic8c570$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.46132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed BetBoom Team68c556.24$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.0628544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae9…5b36backed BetBoom Team74c547$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.31862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.