Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8cbfd74f420290da9f0b9c926cd6addfbc4f6dac255d3ad295df8b4d2525d84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,638 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd73c…21f2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…895dbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Over | 51c | 589.36$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…0b06backed Over | 51c | 581.24$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…c217backed Under | 50c | 550$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb36…113fbacked Over | 50c | 550$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…b543backed Under | 49c | 540$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…f53cbacked Over | 50c | 540$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f0…67c9backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…a23ebacked Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc28f…9185backed Over | 51c | 450$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee0…f8f9backed Under | 48c | 450$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed Over | 52c | 414.04$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 47c | 409.25$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.55 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Over | 53c | 400.09$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 49c | 312.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba08…21f1backed Under | 49c | 305.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd972…c9f4backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…41c4backed Under | 49c | 282.73$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 5c | 215.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 15c | 214.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 26c | 211.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…bb0dbacked Under | 49c | 202.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…4897backed Under | 49c | 187.48$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 49c | 131.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1f70backed Under | 56c | 112.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…50a5backed Under | 48c | 109.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e1…d4d9backed Under | 48c | 103.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820e…9db7backed Under | 48c | 102.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed Under | 48c | 98.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 46c | 86.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 47c | 64.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 53c | 56.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Over | 54c | 53.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Over | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Under | 50c | 41.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x666c…7c8bbacked Over | 52c | 38.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 56c | 37.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 73c | 27.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed Under | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e35…24b1backed Over | 53c | 19.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa0…6cf8backed Under | 74c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)BetBoom Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.