NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19ec6e7d77aee94525ec4d9a79cda93d87cd24cd1da7803add992bb095b59a73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,968 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Over | 50c | 6,530$3,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.4 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 1,993$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.33 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 49c | 1,844$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.03 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 987.33$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Over | 50c | 609.99$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.99 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 561.12$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.19 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 480$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…77aebacked Over | 52c | 461.33$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…8b30backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.3 | 502 | 39%196 W · 306 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9c…dbaebacked Over | 51c | 294.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…ff76backed Over | 18c | 252.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 243.13$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 54c | 240.19$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.79 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 223.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.12 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 129.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…0075backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 67.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Under | 53c | 61.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…3aa2backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 240 | 42.9%103 W · 137 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 50c | 47.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 47.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 48c | 46.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Over | 37c | 41.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 273 | 45.1%123 W · 150 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…9d9fbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Under | 50c | 34.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 31.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 49c | 29.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 45c | 28.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | -18.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf5…b8efbacked Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccd…1c5ebacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Brandon Miller: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Coby White: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Hornets vs. SpursSpurs won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Under won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Kon Knueppel: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.