NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9778e7865252bb24f7ecad7ad2341ba3f8efb7b130ae482122000eca99204cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,376 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ddf…ee85backed Spurs | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015f…3fb3backed Hornets | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Spurs | 55c | 6,075$3,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750.69 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Spurs | 52c | 6,025$3,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,888.99 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Hornets | 44c | 5,172$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,275.68 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Spurs | 49c | 5,145$2,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,629.21 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Hornets | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 52c | 3,587$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Hornets | 46c | 2,759$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264 | 324 | 50.6%164 W · 160 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a7…b600backed Hornets | 50c | 2,297$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Hornets | 50c | 2,008$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.17 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda55…5f78backed Spurs | 50c | 1,799$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…661abacked Hornets | 51c | 1,763$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hornets | 48c | 1,686$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.2 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Hornets | 52c | 1,563$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bf…f357backed Hornets | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 169 | 53.3%90 W · 79 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…2a1bbacked Hornets | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 173 | 49.7%86 W · 87 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd012…9e59backed Spurs | 50c | 1,009$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…c48fbacked Hornets | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Hornets | 49c | 800$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Spurs | 52c | 747.99$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.04 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f9…2213backed Spurs | 50c | 666$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f8…f76bbacked Spurs | 50c | 622$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs | 53c | 608.48$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.23 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Hornets | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…80ebbacked Spurs | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Spurs | 69c | 432.03$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…3b30backed Hornets | 50c | 332$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…e8a8backed Spurs | 50c | 324$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…9981backed Hornets | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Spurs | 55c | 271.11$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bf…6a05backed Spurs | 50c | 264$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Hornets | 45c | 250$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.16 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Spurs | 50c | 249.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.01 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa63d…cbc2backed Spurs | 50c | 249$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ab…0e37backed Hornets | 45c | 247.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Spurs | 55c | 232.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.83 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Spurs | 50c | 228.05$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Hornets | 47c | 213.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…0b37backed Hornets | 51c | 213$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4928…1310backed Hornets | 50c | 205$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Hornets | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Hornets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…328ebacked Hornets | 49c | 199.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Hornets | 18c | 188.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Spurs | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.8wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Hornets | 27c | 125.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff8…a2cabacked Hornets | 44c | 122$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Spurs | 51c | 109.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Spurs | 56c | 107.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382f…c116backed Spurs | 80c | 104.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…476bbacked Hornets | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…1da7backed Spurs | 52c | 98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Spurs | 55c | 96.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 487 | 39.8%194 W · 293 L | -21.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…dcaabacked Hornets | 51c | 96.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Spurs | 56c | 93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Hornets | 48c | 88.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…b810backed Spurs | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…ea8ebacked Hornets | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Spurs | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 384 | 64.3%247 W · 137 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…eb78backed Hornets | 51c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Hornets | 38c | 58.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Hornets | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Spurs | 56c | 47.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Hornets | 25c | 46.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Hornets | 40c | 38.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hornets | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…7d08backed Spurs | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Hornets | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…ff76backed Hornets | 41c | 26.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…25c2backed Spurs | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Hornets | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4c…b7b8backed Spurs | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c0…14c1backed Spurs | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf106…e879backed Hornets | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Spurs | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Brandon Miller: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Coby White: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Hornets vs. SpursSpurs won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5Under won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Kon Knueppel: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.