TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$866

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $737 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed No30c235.89$71 inLost-$70.895,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd1…6a87backed Yes72c187.5$135 inWon+$52.511565.2%75 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No42c162.28$68 inLost-$68.091,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfda…20c0backed Yes56c114.39$64 inWon+$50.391163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ca…9de7backed Yes59c84.75$50 inWon+$34.759558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35aa…ba97backed Yes62c48.39$30 inWon+$18.3912257.4%70 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No46c46.51$22 inLost-$21.61,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10a7…97d4backed Yes53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.742360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa413…1fe0backed No47c30$14 inLost-$14.14055%22 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.