TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,066 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under47c2,050$966 inWon+$1,084.564,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over53c1,399$737 inLost-$737.474,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under48c1,275$612 inWon+$6631,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over52c1,153$599 inLost-$598.814,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5fc…adbabacked Over51c588.24$300 inLost-$300425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over50c500$250 inLost-$25067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over51c484.59$245 inLost-$244.983,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under71c422.54$300 inWon+$122.5465872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Under48c416.67$200 inWon+$216.6732450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over50c349.7$175 inLost-$174.852,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Under48c273.33$131 inWon+$142.1320838%79 W · 129 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9c…dbaebacked Over55c273.03$150 inLost-$1501833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c267.03$132 inWon+$135.359,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over49c177.72$87 inLost-$86.693,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaad…c739backed Over54c166.67$90 inLost-$906248.4%30 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Under51c138$70 inWon+$67.6254351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under50c128.98$65 inWon+$64.262,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Under50c100.51$50 inWon+$50.5155533.5%186 W · 369 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Under51c91.84$47 inWon+$4558754.7%321 W · 266 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Under48c91.74$44 inWon+$47.7837848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over49c67.48$33 inLost-$32.762,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1d…d03ebacked Over51c58.09$30 inLost-$29.63450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabae…d62dbacked Over52c50$26 inLost-$268145.7%37 W · 44 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over50c47.67$24 inLost-$23.9988057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under50c41.25$21 inWon+$20.6337665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1fe2…b543backed Under48c41.25$20 inWon+$21.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under48c39.5$19 inWon+$20.541,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca8…d137backed Over53c37.74$20 inLost-$202951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Under49c32.65$16 inWon+$16.6536350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4cb…a917backed Under48c31.25$15 inWon+$16.254831.3%15 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over49c30.61$15 inLost-$1511845.8%54 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4c…b7b8backed Under50c20$10 inWon+$1015054%81 W · 69 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Over52c19.75$10 inLost-$10.2720140.3%81 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.