NBA · resolved market
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf78f2c0394893742388df9d83670ce051d7aac1089f57e510771e1d70533f62d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,802 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,005$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 50c | 757.2$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.2 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…563fbacked Yes | 31c | 542.92$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.92 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 52c | 531$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.97 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 45c | 473.13$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.96 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…a266backed Yes | 52c | 343.32$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 60c | 341.65$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.74 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 67c | 341.46$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.04 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa413…1fe0backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 160.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -9.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 67c | 104.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…e3c3backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…6d7abacked Yes | 25c | 55.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac7…8d58backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2281…d7a4backed Yes | 55c | 48.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 64c | 44.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 70c | 44.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4729…8cfdbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x788c…4a44backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 47c | 23.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 67c | 22.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 70c | 21.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed No | 75c | 13.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Brandon Miller: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Coby White: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Hornets vs. SpursSpurs won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5Under won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Kon Knueppel: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.