TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Yandex, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$444,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $444,452 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid50c70,781$35,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,516.6455157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Team Yandex51c64,217$32,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,981.7114253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Yandex54c44,601$24,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Liquid46c24,088$11,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,007.6436041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Team Yandex53c18,849$9,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,989.9413441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Team Liquid46c15,570$7,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,408.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Yandex51c11,736$6,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,02353451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Liquid47c10,673$4,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,686.7932854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Team Yandex41c9,151$3,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,756.8412156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Team Liquid46c9,003$4,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,861.6722643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid55c8,535$4,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,832.3896557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Yandex32c7,782$2,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.7341242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Yandex50c6,588$3,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,302.051,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Yandex49c5,555$2,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,721.9545139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Yandex20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Liquid47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.9822954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Liquid46c4,500$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,41564744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc41…475ebacked Team Liquid48c4,331$2,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,231.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Team Liquid57c4,000$2,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.911960.5%72 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Liquid70c3,851$2,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.2152243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Yandex24c3,612$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.5148954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacce…72e8backed Team Yandex54c3,575$1,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,945.483435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Liquid66c3,467$2,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.1471454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked Team Liquid55c3,411$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.783762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Team Liquid59c3,336$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.329636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Team Yandex53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59016142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Team Liquid72c2,998$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.9814443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex44c2,944$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.411,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22c3…289cbacked Team Liquid80c2,860$2,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.91666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16db…ac64backed Team Liquid54c2,751$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.078439.3%33 W · 51 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Yandex46c2,568$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.681,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Yandex50c2,534$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.6120159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Team Liquid74c2,500$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64012642.1%53 W · 73 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Liquid59c2,378$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.446649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Team Liquid53c2,346$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.1511549.6%57 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed Team Liquid47c2,343$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.479447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Liquid51c2,327$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.179959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Team Liquid59c2,304$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.3933041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Yandex43c2,270$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.241,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked Team Liquid50c2,200$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1003154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Liquid63c2,191$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.4818362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Team Yandex54c2,134$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.791844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Team Liquid50c2,100$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.9738653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked Team Liquid51c1,951$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.289858.2%57 W · 41 L-0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Team Yandex44c1,944$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.267935.4%28 W · 51 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc3e…6774backed Team Yandex57c1,768$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.093336.4%12 W · 21 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Team Yandex52c1,710$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88817251.2%88 W · 84 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Liquid49c1,583$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.7860646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Yandex52c1,553$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Yandex28c1,546$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.0551049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Team Liquid47c1,494$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.732755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Team Liquid48c1,430$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.326237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team Liquid51c1,406$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.9519147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1c6…d2d6backed Team Yandex49c1,316$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.238445.2%38 W · 46 L-9.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e56…55bbbacked Team Yandex32c1,200$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.71637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb17a…c30dbacked Team Yandex49c1,188$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.083060%18 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Liquid51c1,188$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.0836343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Team Liquid53c1,141$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.5216550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Team Liquid73c1,139$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.7530155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Yandex43c1,105$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.671,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Liquid48c1,079$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.0558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0262…85bebacked Team Yandex47c1,044$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.5920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid45c1,015$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.252,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea9…42a1backed Team Liquid48c1,015$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.584250%21 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bcc…84c1backed Team Liquid50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5004440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Yandex6c1,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6237811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4af…7dc0backed Team Yandex4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-75.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Liquid51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49031245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Team Yandex55c979.5$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.727955.7%44 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Team Yandex33c961.02$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.653333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcfa…cab8backed Team Liquid79c889.99$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c57…47aabacked Team Liquid53c842.05$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.034544.4%20 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c29…fb0bbacked Team Yandex42c786.86$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3319953.5%53 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4340…1aecbacked Team Yandex52c768.37$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.561030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Team Liquid50c759$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.533549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Team Yandex28c737.3$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.448040%32 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked Team Liquid53c731.89$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.6913247.7%63 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Yandex31c724.3$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4744149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Team Liquid60c719$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.933645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Team Yandex53c706.97$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.722727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Team Liquid61c660.86$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.2655457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Team Liquid55c645.36$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.5238855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Team Liquid68c644.99$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.47950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Liquid79c631.99$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.7234443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Team Liquid69c623.83$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.6420350.7%103 W · 100 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Team Yandex49c618.08$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.8612948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Team Yandex54c610$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.413138.9%51 W · 80 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Team Liquid66c607.58$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.5817353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Liquid51c600$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.1923050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Yandex49c588.63$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.5251751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Liquid71c562.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.6620156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Team Yandex30c536.29$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8750832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Team Liquid50c536$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26872154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Team Liquid64c522.22$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5946049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid60c521.59$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.462,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Yandex27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13513027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Team Liquid60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20011648.3%56 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Team Liquid73c483.64$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.426661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Team Liquid53c479.28$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.3710550.5%53 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb110…21eabacked Team Liquid66c457.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.047550.7%38 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.