TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$770,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $770,516 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf556…d2c2backed Team Liquid0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Yandex53c53,279$28,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,779.2554556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Team Yandex66c46,548$30,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,959.0414253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid40c28,947$11,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,666.855157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Liquid47c25,803$12,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,011.2636041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Team Liquid46c18,862$8,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,770.174658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Team Liquid41c12,690$5,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,262.59636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Team Yandex56c12,267$6,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,397.4213441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Team Liquid47c10,700$5,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,02922643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Liquid43c10,579$4,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,560.8932854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Team Liquid10c10,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95013020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Liquid42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20045139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid47c7,832$3,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,69796357.3%552 W · 411 L+48.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Team Liquid44c7,814$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4655642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Liquid46c7,615$3,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,53333850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x225b…022fbacked Team Liquid14c7,600$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0951513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked Team Yandex61c6,574$3,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,577.953154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Team Yandex63c6,312$3,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,313.5412156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Yandex78c5,869$4,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.5918661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Team Yandex54c5,500$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.993951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Team Yandex58c5,314$3,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,247.0322842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Yandex63c5,268$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.9648954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Yandex65c4,763$3,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.972,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed Team Liquid45c4,450$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Team Liquid34c4,049$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.2233041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacce…72e8backed Team Yandex53c3,962$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,862.263435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid19c3,723$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.41,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Liquid46c3,621$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.0777941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Liquid46c3,519$1,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,628.5160542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Liquid24c3,500$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83014515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Liquid43c3,500$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.9918362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Liquid30c3,419$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.7871454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f9c…101cbacked Team Yandex60c3,409$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.438160.5%49 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Yandex57c3,277$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.2742145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Team Liquid46c3,211$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.496852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid32c3,059$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.162,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Team Yandex77c3,000$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69011043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex59c2,976$1,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.31,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Yandex57c2,625$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.81,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Yandex66c2,439$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.6660646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Team Liquid45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.916248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Team Liquid27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5407955.7%44 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Liquid46c2,000$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.7758744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Liquid44c1,989$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.3651751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Team Liquid51c1,962$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Team Yandex58c1,889$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.4338653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab1…9b4fbacked Team Yandex53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.798048.8%39 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Team Yandex58c1,833$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.3812454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Yandex60c1,811$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.981,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Yandex67c1,788$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.9239660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Team Yandex56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.717941.8%33 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Liquid13c1,782$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9899844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe491…ccd1backed Team Yandex53c1,694$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.822650%13 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Team Yandex54c1,669$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.21844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Yandex70c1,567$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.279559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Team Yandex74c1,425$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.0220767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x815a…2540backed Team Liquid45c1,325$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.461758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Liquid42c1,310$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.5855751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…fb0bbacked Team Yandex74c1,300$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3389953.5%53 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Liquid46c1,298$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.9836851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Yandex77c1,248$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.2560552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Team Liquid28c1,166$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.446237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd67…d632backed Team Yandex55c1,143$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.27333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Team Liquid44c1,107$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.763743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Liquid33c1,099$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.3623050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Yandex53c1,084$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.657355.5%318 W · 255 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Team Yandex56c1,070$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.758845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Team Yandex54c1,066$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.1913138.9%51 W · 80 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Team Yandex58c1,036$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.326351%134 W · 129 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Yandex55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45080443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Yandex55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45024251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Team Liquid40c990.81$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.146637.9%25 W · 41 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team Liquid42c960.99$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.6234044.4%151 W · 189 L+0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e32…6e95backed Team Liquid9c948.21$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.964717%8 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Liquid27c900$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24336343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Team Yandex56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.8612851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Yandex54c887.76$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.0485851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedce…412ebacked Team Liquid4c883.28$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.224719.1%9 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed Team Yandex58c880.34$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.2410645.3%48 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Team Yandex56c877.92$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.9212661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed Team Yandex53c870.49$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.1312966.7%86 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Team Liquid46c850.36$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3904533.3%15 W · 30 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Yandex60c813.89$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.411,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team Yandex60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32065625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Liquid32c800$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25991756.5%518 W · 399 L+79.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Liquid16c799.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12813027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7424…ce06backed Team Yandex54c799.84$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.93862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Team Yandex69c798.93$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.676160.7%37 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Yandex60c766.08$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.6346649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Team Liquid18c748.92$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3315051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Team Yandex76c725$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.728544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Liquid7c713.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9841351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Team Yandex57c701.75$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.7517353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Team Yandex57c700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30123650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd81…5f12backed Team Liquid43c676.42$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.86540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb868…a94ebacked Team Liquid23c664$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick37cpaid-54.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Yandex55c652.55$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.0745046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Liquid46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Liquid22c650.98$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.412,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Team Yandex74c650$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1697950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.