Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16b827e86f2710e841fb0b188a863ad00943aa9803b712da76448de64524cd4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Yandex, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,681 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Liquid | 66c | 847.88$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.28 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Team Yandex | 71c | 482.5$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.23 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Team Yandex | 34c | 442.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Team Yandex | 77c | 392.31$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.25 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid | 42c | 321.16$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.54 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Team Liquid | 11c | 307.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Team Liquid | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Team Yandex | 34c | 182.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…cd80backed Team Yandex | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Yandex | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…85b9backed Team Yandex | 34c | 54.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 3 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 4 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game Handicap: TY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.