Middle East · resolved market
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabe05aa3efb620cf283a9a7f967eaced0aee898b14f3b170347a3392d7401f03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,051,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,792,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,051,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 5c | 78,458$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,566.31 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 1c | 75,350$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.25 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 52,645$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.44 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…da4abacked Yes | 10c | 51,887$4,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,935.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 4c | 50,916$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.58 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes | 4c | 30,985$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.86 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 30,001$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.01 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 25,839$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.93 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 4c | 23,929$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.75 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 20,801$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.51 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…89bbbacked Yes | 2c | 18,372$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.2 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 4c | 18,156$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.19 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 18,059$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.9 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 2c | 17,718$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.09 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 2c | 17,674$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.83 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 2c | 16,814$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.37 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 4c | 15,710$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.41 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 2c | 15,585$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.26 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 3c | 15,164$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.31 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 1c | 14,996$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.13 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 0c | 14,861$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…e2b8backed Yes | 3c | 13,025$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 1c | 11,500$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 1c | 10,961$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 2c | 10,911$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.29 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 1c | 10,349$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 3c | 10,330$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.45 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…6ab2backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f4…6347backed Yes | 3c | 9,526$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.72 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 4c | 9,490$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…00babacked Yes | 3c | 9,199$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.38 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…f022backed Yes | 2c | 9,122$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 3c | 8,560$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.94 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 2c | 8,327$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.7 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 5c | 8,100$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.58 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 7,712$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.93 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 1c | 7,699$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,518$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…9048backed Yes | 3c | 7,505$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…2d86backed Yes | 3c | 7,239$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…fa1dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,088$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,018$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,004$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 4c | 6,995$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.73 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…b2d8backed Yes | 2c | 6,967$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Yes | 7c | 6,949$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.06 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 6,924$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.88 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 1c | 6,900$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 1c | 6,876$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…0b56backed Yes | 0c | 6,833$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +246.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0851…06d3backed Yes | 2c | 6,726$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…137ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,238$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…8a69backed Yes | 2c | 6,221$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.41 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…c50cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,188$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 6,172$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.91 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 6,081$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…05bfbacked Yes | 6c | 6,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,994$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.48 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 5c | 5,643$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.66 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 4c | 5,625$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 5,440$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 4c | 5,401$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 2c | 5,235$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 0c | 5,216$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3091…013cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,170$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea5…878bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,166$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 6c | 5,155$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…27fbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,149$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 5c | 5,146$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 1c | 5,140$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…1439backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…143cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…a2dcbacked Yes | 9c | 4,767$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 2c | 4,707$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,650$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 2c | 4,642$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 2c | 4,619$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a08…b114backed Yes | 12c | 4,560$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 4c | 4,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,304$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…9e16backed Yes | 1c | 4,238$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 1c | 4,145$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 4,142$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…e462backed Yes | 1c | 4,111$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0a…f591backed Yes | 2c | 3,982$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588f…67b6backed Yes | 3c | 3,974$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed Yes | 9c | 3,795$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.59 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed Yes | 1c | 3,764$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 0c | 3,732$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfb…7632backed Yes | 14c | 3,702$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…32c5backed Yes | 2c | 3,697$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee2…4247backed Yes | 3c | 3,676$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.