TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$324,189
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$298,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $324,189 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x526f…f180backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402853.6%15 W · 13 L+7.7wins+0.27per pick26cpaid+103.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x2e20…24e5backed Yes1c24,208$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7bc…504abacked Yes0c11,664$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.783020%6 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+287.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbabe…ee53backed Yes1c10,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4193…5c28backed Yes63c8,472$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,299.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95a3…046ebacked Yes9c6,666$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.94650%3 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+337.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes23c3,731$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84733329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb79…cf89backed No49c2,951$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.55475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+78.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes43c2,426$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.867919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes1c2,354$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.23456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+272.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes17c2,352$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.841145.5%5 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+225.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa0d7…b21dbacked Yes60c2,251$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c2,122$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.18571.8%1 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+116.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes1c2,048$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes11c2,032$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9915041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87f…b995backed Yes45c1,791$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.44110%0 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed Yes17c1,760$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.251376.9%10 W · 3 L+8.1wins+0.63per pick14cpaid+774.6%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes48c1,600$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.955332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaae7…9036backed Yes1c1,466$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes15c1,464$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.9211833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d72…29c0backed Yes2c1,460$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc875…ee05backed Yes1c1,374$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x921a…ee8dbacked Yes12c1,327$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.19633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x491b…e846backed Yes43c1,277$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.26540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa066…8a4cbacked Yes18c1,187$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85e1…2852backed Yes58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f6…ba96backed Yes52c973.79$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae6f…629ebacked Yes2c930$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c891.16$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.5921240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x362a…68c7backed Yes11c877.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.63333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7212…de43backed Yes53c830.64$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.0150%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x167a…e952backed Yes20c757.85$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.734017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd848…626fbacked Yes26c744.25$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.671421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbe9…185ebacked Yes15c674.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc745…9499backed Yes2c656.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f8b…9cc6backed Yes58c640.08$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+222.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x211a…458ebacked Yes48c639.33$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+900.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed Yes48c624.48$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6faf…6a86backed Yes2c619.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.891811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf156…9ce6backed Yes33c608.4$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+160.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b41…5dedbacked Yes51c602.14$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.09633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48c1…d2cdbacked Yes34c587.98$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes11c570$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.51128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-87%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0939…8137backed Yes19c504.89$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.53944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5dd…3e45backed Yes62c485.52$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd0e…f1d5backed Yes33c453.58$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ce…420cbacked Yes18c436.34$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d37…fbc0backed Yes46c432.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe276…407ebacked Yes12c430.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7613…5ecebacked Yes38c424.2$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7750%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8d9…d7f5backed Yes13c399.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e68…357ebacked Yes15c395.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbfd…0dfcbacked Yes62c375.9$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8bf…c6e3backed Yes24c366.67$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c9…1917backed Yes45c358.3$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.245330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes36c353.68$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.691040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2362…75dabacked Yes22c345.37$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed Yes23c342.83$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.28128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-88.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeec8…3ba4backed Yes30c336.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe6b…f255backed Yes12c331.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.012516%4 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No36c322.61$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.18052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xde79…06abbacked Yes24c322.3$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.614721.3%10 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7633…0f1dbacked Yes16c309.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0776…abb4backed Yes15c302.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed Yes11c300$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3417859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc613…c749backed Yes13c299.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x234f…e2ecbacked Yes53c299.34$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes24c293.74$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.361258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4294…ee29backed No79c292.68$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.07944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick63cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9777…2a8dbacked Yes14c270.14$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.82128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-88.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbdf…3a2bbacked Yes20c244.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x898f…23f0backed No57c225.75$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…1338backed Yes52c224.19$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.542454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x63f3…b6c8backed Yes19c219.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcec4…9cabbacked Yes49c217.8$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9b…8f03backed Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7a…1de3backed No57c215.56$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb21…1583backed Yes45c214.72$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes62c200$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1234153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf577…972ebacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x884f…4bc5backed Yes48c199.48$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes40c195.46$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8513424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf6a7…9f0fbacked Yes62c172.55$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa10a…3352backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes56c164.64$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.22222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6de…d40dbacked Yes33c164.62$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41c7…8023backed Yes34c164.26$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95e7…4152backed Yes34c164.12$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf81…e1b7backed Yes58c162.07$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20fd…74d4backed Yes68c161.81$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed Yes48c158.92$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.93100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes49c150$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.341540%6 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffa4…3ce8backed Yes53c149.38$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15d2…fc10backed No51c137.84$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.841225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d7d…928abacked Yes19c131.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff17…9eb7backed Yes69c130.08$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1962…ffb3backed Yes13c123.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.031625%4 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7243…942abacked Yes57c122.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019f…24f5backed Yes26c113.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.