Token Launches · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x694c9e6de6d95cfa02192b2ab776512381c4c835a8cda1a5059720e62b9445b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 20c | 16,759$3,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,310.44 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 15,179$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 25c | 10,968$2,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,787.68 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,793$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 4c | 7,236$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.82 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbccb…6d3abacked Yes | 14c | 6,567$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 17c | 4,070$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.02 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +7.7wins | +0.27per pick | 26cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed No | 76c | 4,000$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…5c28backed No | 73c | 3,867$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 3,688$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…ac4abacked Yes | 11c | 3,401$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 7c | 3,239$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ac…d977backed Yes | 2c | 3,100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 2c | 3,050$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 3c | 2,981$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5158…ba6dbacked Yes | 35c | 2,896$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 2,895$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.13 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde29…bb6dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,452$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 2c | 2,403$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 70c | 2,060$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…3e45backed Yes | 24c | 1,959$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7212…de43backed Yes | 12c | 1,751$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…96f8backed Yes | 31c | 1,600$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…c1f6backed Yes | 10c | 1,491$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 26c | 1,383$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.49 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…761bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,303$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…407ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,076$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2f…1a88backed No | 80c | 1,063$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…6a37backed Yes | 2c | 1,015$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…3a2bbacked Yes | 5c | 965.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…185ebacked Yes | 29c | 964.37$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 3c | 963.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.09 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +8.1wins | +0.63per pick | 14cpaid | +774.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…8f03backed Yes | 5c | 963.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd024…cf2ebacked Yes | 25c | 947.29$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Yes | 15c | 869.43$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce50…123bbacked Yes | 17c | 855.56$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…b995backed Yes | 20c | 782.22$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 14c | 744.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…b6c8backed Yes | 5c | 720.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67c…9ad5backed Yes | 12c | 688.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…357ebacked Yes | 7c | 645.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c1…d2cdbacked Yes | 17c | 572.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…928abacked Yes | 18c | 508.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa3…bf88backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…5ecebacked Yes | 9c | 496.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…4a57backed No | 75c | 495.73$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 486$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…c9e3backed Yes | 2c | 411.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 407.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa4…3ce8backed Yes | 13c | 397.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 388.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…e129backed Yes | 3c | 385$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…b1d4backed No | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked Yes | 5c | 371.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed Yes | 20c | 366$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 28c | 358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 7c | 342.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 15c | 332.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 6c | 321.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +8.0wins | +0.26per pick | 48cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x81fd…0d12backed No | 72c | 320$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…034cbacked Yes | 18c | 307.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 29c | 303.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 28c | 299.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3d…6279backed Yes | 36c | 278.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…f4f5backed Yes | 4c | 271.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…d09ebacked Yes | 18c | 271.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a9…1e1dbacked Yes | 8c | 240$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…dfa8backed Yes | 24c | 233.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked Yes | 17c | 225.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6694…9c46backed No | 72c | 196.76$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Yes | 16c | 193.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Yes | 24c | 190$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…8a4cbacked Yes | 11c | 180.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…184bbacked No | 70c | 172.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dd…5291backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8896…13b7backed Yes | 12c | 161.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7722…f24ebacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd76e…01ccbacked Yes | 8c | 142.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2784…cebfbacked Yes | 15c | 139.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked No | 79c | 131.04$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6863…f17bbacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8687…e87fbacked No | 61c | 119.25$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 11c | 114.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd39f…d494backed Yes | 18c | 111.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc3…d95dbacked Yes | 10c | 102.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8368…666ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686c…eeadbacked No | 74c | 78.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…9283backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed Yes | 30c | 65.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3985…89dcbacked No | 72c | 55.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a346backed Yes | 38c | 52.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…da00backed Yes | 40c | 43.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in 2024?this page
- Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December?No won
- Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid launch a token in October?No won
- Will Hyperliquid launch a token in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.