World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa175de06da168d8dfc50da2dfedd1956824a7af6535b74c4a99c361f95fe5f81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 1,179$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 14c | 552.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 514.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 437.39$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 4c | 433.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…23f0backed Yes | 19c | 419.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 6c | 275.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 15c | 243.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 33c | 236$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 201.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 198.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 12c | 194.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 187.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 6c | 178.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 16c | 172.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 15c | 156$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 17c | 148.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 143$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 23c | 131.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f02bbacked Yes | 15c | 128.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 123.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 17c | 102.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 18c | 93.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 15c | 88.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 84.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed Yes | 15c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 26c | 76.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 69.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 65.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 68c | 64.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 53.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 24c | 51.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 23c | 50.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 49.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 32c | 48.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 31c | 46.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 42.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 37.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 33.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 32.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed No | 80c | 21.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 79c | 15.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 69c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.