World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60dff00de601fc00ffe5207af612b19f022de35ea5af58b42925fb4107a75c3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 45c | 2,011$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.74 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 2,010$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.52 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,513$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.62 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 1,298$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.66 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 28c | 980$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.3 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…23f0backed No | 73c | 753.98$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 77c | 734.68$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 604.39$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.15 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6991…6ad6backed Yes | 20c | 494.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +389.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 61c | 477.4$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.7 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 46c | 452.26$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.94 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 439.19$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.6 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 411.53$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.53 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 16c | 408.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.47 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 400.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 394.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.47 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 376.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.2 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 71c | 338.77$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 336.74$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 10c | 269.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 266.33$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.75 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked No | 8c | 238.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 21c | 235$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.65 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 32c | 231.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 213.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 187.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 33c | 181$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 179.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 8c | 177.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 74c | 165.66$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 164$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 35c | 145.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 140$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 136$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 75c | 133.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 14c | 132.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 130.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.16 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 75c | 130.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 58c | 128.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 126.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 125.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…21fdbacked No | 78c | 115.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 15c | 114.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 54c | 112.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 109.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 58c | 105.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 13c | 100.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 20c | 98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 68c | 90.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 86.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 85.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 27c | 79.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 32c | 78.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 68c | 76.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 24c | 76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 75.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 18c | 74.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 45c | 71.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 71.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 70.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 70.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 71c | 70.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 31c | 59.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 38c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 56.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 55.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 54.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 46c | 53.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 52.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 71c | 50.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 30c | 49.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 57c | 47.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 46.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 45.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 36c | 41.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 47c | 41.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 74c | 41.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.