Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfafe7d33afa2642dedc951f4c22a7ff2b048add563737b59ed61f3119ce2cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $476,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $383,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $476,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 391 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 9c | 35,115$3,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,295.08 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 12c | 15,630$1,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,933.42 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 14c | 15,316$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,117.59 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 4c | 14,185$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.44 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 8c | 12,389$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.68 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,863$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 1c | 10,531$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 7c | 9,284$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.17 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 32c | 8,045$2,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,572.39 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…5f35backed No | 69c | 6,306$4,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 38c | 6,251$2,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,406.31 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 5,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 36c | 5,181$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.6 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 53c | 5,026$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.83 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 13c | 5,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.99 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…dfedbacked Yes | 1c | 4,736$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 30c | 4,411$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.1 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 59c | 3,653$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.21 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 65c | 3,624$2,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.88 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640e…66c1backed Yes | 4c | 3,567$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +185.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 32c | 3,485$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.1 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 60c | 3,409$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.36 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 33c | 3,000$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.9 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,999$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed No | 63c | 2,984$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.11 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 63c | 2,942$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.81 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,716$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.77 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 31c | 2,576$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.2 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 3c | 2,504$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 32c | 2,344$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed Yes | 23c | 2,284$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.55 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 34c | 2,178$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.55 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 19c | 2,177$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.19 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 40c | 2,140$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.99 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 30c | 2,109$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.41 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 42c | 2,090$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.2 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 10c | 1,811$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.55 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,751$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.08 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…c9f0backed Yes | 42c | 1,601$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.35 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 54c | 1,439$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.23 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 25c | 1,439$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.47 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 26c | 1,420$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.91 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…fce2backed No | 74c | 1,391$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,364$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.12 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 26c | 1,285$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.85 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 15c | 1,257$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.09 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…6da7backed No | 64c | 1,245$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.99 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 21c | 1,230$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.76 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes | 37c | 1,200$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.4 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 2c | 1,177$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…1695backed Yes | 44c | 1,137$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.06 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,119$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.59 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 33c | 1,062$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes | 26c | 1,002$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 85 | 27.1%23 W · 62 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 46c | 995.18$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.86 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac00…1e51backed Yes | 24c | 980.24$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 79c | 976.84$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.72 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 29c | 972.98$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.43 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 76c | 940.99$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.89 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…4ab2backed Yes | 11c | 935.69$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 31c | 915.18$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.74 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 8c | 876.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 33c | 854.31$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.69 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 851.29$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.71 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…2c4dbacked Yes | 9c | 845.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cac…1f4cbacked No | 60c | 821.35$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.01 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 36c | 820.89$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 44c | 786.69$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Yes | 25c | 782.65$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.66 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…5be3backed Yes | 19c | 772$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.24 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed Yes | 25c | 759.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 24c | 758.63$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.67 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes | 21c | 735$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.35 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f6…9404backed Yes | 28c | 715.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 32c | 710.14$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.04 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5153…af7dbacked Yes | 35c | 703.03$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.29 | 97 | 30.9%30 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…d8cebacked Yes | 44c | 699.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 699.97$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.6 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes | 43c | 679.58$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…42debacked Yes | 30c | 659.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…232bbacked No | 77c | 650.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…5b2ebacked Yes | 7c | 641.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3936…c1c8backed No | 79c | 633$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…c517backed Yes | 3c | 624.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…636cbacked Yes | 39c | 614.04$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.1 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…000cbacked Yes | 30c | 611.05$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 37c | 605.8$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.15 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3b…899fbacked Yes | 36c | 593.64$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.36 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 9c | 590.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c2…a53dbacked No | 71c | 589.98$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 35c | 571$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…c29ebacked Yes | 18c | 564.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7a…525fbacked Yes | 16c | 538.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed Yes | 31c | 529.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.6 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 32c | 519.21$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.15 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.