Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bbcfbe7bdcf7045ea956da0abb5339d918086e632224ca3b52fd3f8ec4b6a79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $362,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $332,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $362,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 13,443$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 12,566$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.04 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6d…0446backed Yes | 1c | 10,811$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 9,992$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 9,827$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.21 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 14c | 7,894$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.84 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 7c | 7,096$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.91 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 0c | 6,645$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 6,193$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.5 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 6c | 6,073$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.53 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 21c | 4,861$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.71 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 19c | 4,561$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.61 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 19c | 4,200$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 13c | 3,314$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.55 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,804$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.96 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 4c | 2,788$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 78c | 2,464$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.31 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 17c | 2,200$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.98 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 24c | 2,080$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,994$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.58 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 76c | 1,949$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.35 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 5c | 1,850$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 9c | 1,830$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.55 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 1,801$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 3c | 1,757$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac00…1e51backed Yes | 3c | 1,583$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 9c | 1,520$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.45 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 17c | 1,455$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 13c | 1,290$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes | 14c | 1,242$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.43 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…42debacked Yes | 17c | 1,179$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 18c | 1,130$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,119$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 21c | 1,093$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.71 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 5c | 1,060$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,010$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 8c | 999.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 4c | 999.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 994.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes | 18c | 985.12$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 85 | 27.1%23 W · 62 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 17c | 966.53$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.15 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 17c | 929.02$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.2 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…c29ebacked Yes | 13c | 839.41$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.37 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 79c | 785.19$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.82 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 16c | 762.5$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 18c | 759.2$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 19c | 750.16$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.17 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 11c | 743.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 15c | 723.28$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes | 23c | 680.43$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 20c | 676.22$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 17c | 673.19$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ea…ef4fbacked Yes | 5c | 642.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 11c | 602.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 9c | 599.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…22f1backed No | 76c | 595$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cb…84a1backed Yes | 18c | 563.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cac…1f4cbacked Yes | 4c | 534.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…896bbacked Yes | 9c | 531.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…87f4backed Yes | 19c | 514.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 511.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 509.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 80c | 506.96$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 16c | 500.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 4c | 500.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 11c | 499.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 18c | 498.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…495abacked Yes | 23c | 498.37$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 3c | 481.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 5c | 456.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +196.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e54…8347backed Yes | 5c | 456.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 437.45$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3b…899fbacked Yes | 18c | 432.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…3ccebacked Yes | 21c | 400$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 125 | 14.4%18 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes | 3c | 399.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 161 | 19.9%32 W · 129 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 25c | 398.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 17c | 338.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…5501backed Yes | 5c | 312.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…c529backed Yes | 23c | 302.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…6604backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 5c | 298.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864d…64afbacked Yes | 17c | 297.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 122 | 19.7%24 W · 98 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 17c | 297.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af7…7fe5backed Yes | 17c | 285.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c1…7237backed Yes | 18c | 284.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 15c | 280$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 9c | 277.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 16c | 260.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 15c | 253.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…ca63backed Yes | 12c | 249.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 21c | 242$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…a4d7backed Yes | 17c | 212.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.