Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x630d3ab7c338d037c790f4f656fb9a375ff845eabe34b3607277895f5a07e0cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 0c | 31,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,887$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 11,053$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.77 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,955$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 0c | 8,301$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.78 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 4,733$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 2c | 4,555$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 4c | 3,786$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.22 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 3c | 3,027$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 3c | 2,993$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 9c | 2,752$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.93 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,699$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,424$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 2,015$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 5c | 1,898$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,830$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 1,804$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,773$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 1c | 1,757$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 1,641$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4a…1a75backed Yes | 3c | 1,339$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,253$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 1,237$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,141$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 1,130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 1,069$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc044…de04backed Yes | 3c | 1,047$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd560…1200backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 6c | 959.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 2c | 939.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 2c | 929.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 88 | 5.7%5 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864d…64afbacked Yes | 5c | 927.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 122 | 19.7%24 W · 98 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e54…8347backed Yes | 5c | 924.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 854.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 4c | 755.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 5c | 749.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 5c | 678.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +196.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Yes | 8c | 628.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e4…0e38backed Yes | 7c | 586.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…5116backed Yes | 5c | 581.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…5501backed Yes | 6c | 531.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 4c | 517.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 5c | 500.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 4c | 499.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 5c | 499.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 3c | 465.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 7c | 452.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…7a52backed Yes | 6c | 435.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Yes | 4c | 428$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 6c | 426.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14d…2563backed Yes | 6c | 329.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 15.9%23 W · 122 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 4c | 323.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e3…24ffbacked Yes | 3c | 320$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cf…95e9backed Yes | 3c | 317.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…f76abacked Yes | 5c | 308.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa876…2397backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…eed3backed Yes | 4c | 299.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1032backed Yes | 7c | 294.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 6c | 284.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 5c | 237.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 7c | 218.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…fe54backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf775…f817backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…db35backed Yes | 5c | 190$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 6c | 168$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 6c | 156.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.