Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e31feff85ad46fc4f7aae32a3252922ca785cde03e2e1520a00f947089991b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $672,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $511,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $672,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 118,544$2,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.43 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 26,355$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.69 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 6c | 14,792$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.13 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 1c | 11,168$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed Yes | 4c | 10,776$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.62 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,665$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 2c | 9,352$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cac…1f4cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,631$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.18 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 4c | 7,170$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.99 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…3ccebacked Yes | 3c | 7,077$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.14 | 125 | 14.4%18 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 6c | 6,863$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…4586backed Yes | 2c | 6,782$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.82 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 2c | 6,543$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab3…f52bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,515$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes | 5c | 5,866$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 5c | 5,233$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.88 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 4c | 5,151$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.74 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 4c | 4,862$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.14 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 4,811$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 4c | 4,415$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c5…b901backed Yes | 3c | 4,291$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 3c | 3,925$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.48 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 4c | 3,905$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.43 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 6c | 3,705$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.85 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 4c | 3,650$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.85 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 3,576$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,259$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,036$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,955$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 2c | 2,839$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 2,680$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes | 3c | 2,599$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 2c | 2,400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 2,371$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 3c | 2,229$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740f…a3a6backed Yes | 6c | 2,167$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 3c | 2,140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d1f7backed Yes | 2c | 2,119$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 4c | 1,833$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…1695backed Yes | 4c | 1,827$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,725$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 1,718$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 7c | 1,640$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…87f4backed Yes | 6c | 1,632$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 5c | 1,495$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 1,402$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,354$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…15ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…717ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,191$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,188$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 1c | 1,159$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 1c | 1,150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 1,134$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…d7a0backed Yes | 3c | 1,113$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…acf8backed Yes | 7c | 1,021$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 5c | 992.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 14c | 930.29$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 11c | 911.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…a387backed Yes | 2c | 902.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…c529backed Yes | 11c | 899.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes | 3c | 886$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6d…7aaebacked Yes | 6c | 851.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…cbdabacked Yes | 4c | 821.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 5c | 787.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe6…7c8fbacked Yes | 13c | 780.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes | 3c | 734.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 13c | 725.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5153…af7dbacked Yes | 7c | 678.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 30.9%30 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 5c | 657.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 9c | 645.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes | 6c | 610.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…2ad9backed Yes | 3c | 608.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 4c | 588.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 2c | 563.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 2c | 548.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa01f…d6d0backed Yes | 3c | 539.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 4c | 538.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4f…2cffbacked Yes | 4c | 532.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 4c | 528.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 4c | 508.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 4c | 500.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c9…dfbfbacked Yes | 2c | 487.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 2c | 457.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf775…f817backed Yes | 8c | 455.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 9c | 452.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 3c | 446.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 5c | 434.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 5c | 409.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 5c | 408.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 5c | 388.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd305…3c45backed Yes | 5c | 385.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.