Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69480a4c6dcc3c35c74e4a4dee394258268da1156eb03a1236fd49a28dd5fc61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $608,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $673,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $608,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 503 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd4b…cac3backed No | 32c | 17,253$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600.49 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 16c | 14,708$2,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,287.43 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 18c | 12,674$2,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,344.22 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 16c | 12,405$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.06 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed No | 1c | 11,636$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 40c | 8,499$3,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,089.87 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 22c | 6,975$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,445.76 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 31c | 5,429$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,752.12 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 29c | 5,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,549.99 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 66c | 4,923$3,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,263.81 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…6da7backed No | 68c | 4,452$3,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,043.05 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…2b78backed Yes | 74c | 3,903$2,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.44 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 57c | 3,620$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.73 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…f368backed No | 22c | 3,488$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed No | 61c | 3,300$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 52c | 3,102$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.38 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 49c | 3,037$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.3 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…2b42backed No | 33c | 2,985$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.06 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 37c | 2,879$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.95 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 39c | 2,803$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.15 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2a…534ebacked Yes | 78c | 2,724$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 28c | 2,718$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.8 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…420cbacked Yes | 64c | 2,544$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 25c | 2,459$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.73 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 48c | 2,320$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.23 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 74c | 2,319$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.2 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed Yes | 32c | 2,305$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.73 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 49c | 2,226$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.97 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 65c | 2,184$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.8 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…c3c0backed No | 12c | 2,161$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.45 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…5f35backed Yes | 27c | 1,993$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 36c | 1,950$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.77 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 67c | 1,917$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.81 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 32c | 1,845$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.35 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed No | 55c | 1,818$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked No | 42c | 1,818$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.92 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 70c | 1,800$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 69c | 1,757$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.32 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…000cbacked Yes | 67c | 1,725$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…fcb4backed No | 3c | 1,719$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b02…ae87backed Yes | 60c | 1,716$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…fce2backed No | 75c | 1,690$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked No | 23c | 1,615$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.68 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 54c | 1,533$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.72 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 1,525$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.36 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 48c | 1,496$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.6 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e28…c195backed No | 20c | 1,484$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…3cb2backed No | 34c | 1,472$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.55 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2641…062fbacked No | 26c | 1,441$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 35c | 1,438$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.47 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f3…3a31backed No | 18c | 1,400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 43c | 1,394$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.57 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 1,391$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.58 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 43c | 1,381$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.5 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 38c | 1,347$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.41 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 66c | 1,316$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.3 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…15f9backed Yes | 78c | 1,154$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 28c | 1,066$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.27 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…232bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,014$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 36c | 1,013$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.67 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b25…a545backed No | 71c | 1,005$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 72c | 1,001$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.32 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed Yes | 67c | 1,000$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.9 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes | 52c | 981.3$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.48 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…37babacked No | 68c | 976.31$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.75 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 28c | 959.98$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.68 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…8b8fbacked No | 63c | 952.47$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 94 | 16%15 W · 79 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7a…525fbacked Yes | 75c | 925.94$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5c…91c4backed Yes | 71c | 871.07$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.57 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…9992backed Yes | 74c | 867.08$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.67 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cac…1f4cbacked No | 43c | 848.29$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.69 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…c9f0backed Yes | 37c | 833.67$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.44 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 61c | 799.01$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.79 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5153…af7dbacked Yes | 48c | 759.1$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.92 | 97 | 30.9%30 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 747.39$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.56 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes | 74c | 735$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.34 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…c2a0backed Yes | 59c | 720$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.8 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 26c | 701.52$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.52 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 25c | 700$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked Yes | 58c | 699.99$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.99 | 238 | 31.1%74 W · 164 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740f…a3a6backed Yes | 35c | 699.98$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes | 26c | 679.97$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.93 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 22c | 672.91$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6370…50a4backed No | 15c | 657.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes | 45c | 647.67$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.67 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 29c | 645.17$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.13 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…f509backed Yes | 77c | 637$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 40c | 633.42$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.9 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 22c | 628.21$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…99acbacked Yes | 68c | 612.15$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 30c | 604.19$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.85 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked No | 47c | 599.98$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.49 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…01d9backed Yes | 30c | 599.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.41 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed Yes | 31c | 596.83$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.83 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed No | 9c | 594.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 68c | 592.02$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8949…5e21backed No | 28c | 572.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.44 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.