TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$608,918
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$673,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $608,918 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 503 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd4b…cac3backed No32c17,253$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,600.494531.1%14 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No16c14,708$2,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,287.4356429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No18c12,674$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,344.2262539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No16c12,405$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.061,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed No1c11,636$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8124710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes40c8,499$3,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,089.8724115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes22c6,975$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,445.7654122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes31c5,429$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,752.1218722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes29c5,000$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,549.995635.7%20 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No66c4,923$3,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,263.8154675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f2c…6da7backed No68c4,452$3,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043.057643.4%33 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf328…2b78backed Yes74c3,903$2,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.443360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes57c3,620$2,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.7311556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8241…f368backed No22c3,488$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed No61c3,300$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes52c3,102$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.3814025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes49c3,037$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.318618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbc6…2b42backed No33c2,985$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.064770.2%33 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes37c2,879$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.9513318%24 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No39c2,803$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.15704.3%3 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-87.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e2a…534ebacked Yes78c2,724$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.611330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes28c2,718$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.85228.8%15 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9079…420cbacked Yes64c2,544$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes25c2,459$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.7341017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes48c2,320$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.2317919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes74c2,319$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.246521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed Yes32c2,305$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.736457.8%37 W · 27 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes49c2,226$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.978622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes65c2,184$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.819550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x111b…c3c0backed No12c2,161$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.454768.1%32 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f02…5f35backed Yes27c1,993$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.051662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+47.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes36c1,950$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.7726411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes67c1,917$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.8120735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes32c1,845$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.351,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb3…f8d6backed No55c1,818$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0073828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bcf…04fcbacked No42c1,818$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.923912.8%5 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick16cpaid+40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes70c1,800$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5404936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes69c1,757$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.3229225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…000cbacked Yes67c1,725$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0431…fcb4backed No3c1,719$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.98250%0 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b02…ae87backed Yes60c1,716$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.89875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8116…fce2backed No75c1,690$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.841136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked No23c1,615$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.6813511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No54c1,533$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.729423.4%22 W · 72 L-16.1wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c1,525$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.362,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes48c1,496$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.688018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e28…c195backed No20c1,484$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.151643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+97.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf594…3cb2backed No34c1,472$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.554070%28 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2641…062fbacked No26c1,441$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes35c1,438$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.4714137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f3…3a31backed No18c1,400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes43c1,394$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.576747.8%32 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+49.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c1,391$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.5826167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes43c1,381$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes38c1,347$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.4133231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes66c1,316$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.338828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x937e…15f9backed Yes78c1,154$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.851442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes28c1,066$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.271,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x685e…232bbacked Yes32c1,014$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.45633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes36c1,013$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.6746137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b25…a545backed No71c1,005$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7123429.4%10 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-52.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes72c1,001$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.3236018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed Yes67c1,000$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.92560%15 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27018123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes52c981.3$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.4811834.7%41 W · 77 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a0f…37babacked No68c976.31$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.756535.4%23 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes28c959.98$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.6834215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked No63c952.47$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.999416%15 W · 79 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d7a…525fbacked Yes75c925.94$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.94875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5c…91c4backed Yes71c871.07$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.07450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes23c869.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.5722718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1626…9992backed Yes74c867.08$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.6711428.9%33 W · 81 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cac…1f4cbacked No43c848.29$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.694042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…c9f0backed Yes37c833.67$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.442171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes61c799.01$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.7960127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5153…af7dbacked Yes48c759.1$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.929730.9%30 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No56c747.39$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.5631565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes74c735$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.3412136.4%44 W · 77 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec3…c2a0backed Yes59c720$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.85749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes26c701.52$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.5215819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No25c700$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1737820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes58c699.99$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.9923831.1%74 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x740f…a3a6backed Yes35c699.98$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes26c679.97$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.933815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked No22c672.91$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3618631.7%59 W · 127 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6370…50a4backed No15c657.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes45c647.67$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.678236.6%30 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes29c645.17$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.1356817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcef4…f509backed Yes77c637$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No40c633.42$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.99355.9%52 W · 41 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes22c628.21$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49016427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce4d…99acbacked Yes68c612.15$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.241346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes30c604.19$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.8519317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes37c600$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37821233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked No47c599.98$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.4950913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe398…01d9backed Yes30c599.98$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.411631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d68…1474backed Yes31c596.83$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.837525.3%19 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed No9c594.62$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.528826.1%23 W · 65 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-47.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No68c592.02$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8949…5e21backed No28c572.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.444860.4%29 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.