TailMyPicks
Market

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$404,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,683 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 354 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes44c48,958$21,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,535.763414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9411…c76dbacked Yes0c45,178$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.422128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes48c16,664$7,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,998.7554122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes59c14,813$8,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,669.8366222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No49c12,606$6,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,373.6656429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…5909backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes63c6,200$3,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,876.9857222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes60c5,555$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,33329331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes26c4,924$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.7920735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes34c4,802$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.3931621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed No55c4,676$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,112.178425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes58c4,124$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.546521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes34c3,406$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.3376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7d…6ca0backed Yes75c3,342$2,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,512728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes50c3,300$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.12838.4%7 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-69.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No62c2,943$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.7954675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes24c2,599$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.0521213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes61c2,500$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.0631722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed No41c2,312$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.7622142.5%94 W · 127 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No41c2,311$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.7628025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes29c2,200$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.4932716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No42c2,100$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22714219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed No23c2,064$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.9917723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes5c2,000$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.91,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes62c1,991$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.579616.7%16 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes41c1,944$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80033527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c1,914$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.462,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed Yes9c1,776$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.842128.6%6 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.20per pick9cpaid+299.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes42c1,769$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.137536%27 W · 48 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes24c1,727$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.351,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca1…825fbacked Yes77c1,704$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.791353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x252f…bfc1backed Yes64c1,676$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.066630.3%20 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes24c1,673$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.2512117.4%21 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes51c1,671$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.3860127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed No50c1,665$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.715174.5%38 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No38c1,567$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.9210857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes31c1,500$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46018822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4b…74d1backed Yes33c1,400$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4622161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+87.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes53c1,358$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.6514137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x823d…bafebacked Yes75c1,346$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.527628.9%22 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes50c1,341$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.4921034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes29c1,312$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.66114.8%9 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes47c1,276$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.6853522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes16c1,222$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.578320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes16c1,221$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7229227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes33c1,212$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010523.8%25 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes49c1,195$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.4532015%48 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick15cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes75c1,189$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.6417728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ef…93eebacked Yes62c1,151$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.418332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes29c1,070$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.8788018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes35c1,068$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36918618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x611b…9b3dbacked Yes34c1,064$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes22c1,054$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.171389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes1c1,023$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313119.1%25 W · 106 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No19c1,003$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.5618123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11018424.5%45 W · 139 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes72c1,000$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71515649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes15c996.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.532825%7 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+60.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdee3…7a50backed Yes72c958.16$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.651526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes22c899.98$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.791,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed No44c893.26$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.6327316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes51c887.91$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.8362713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes25c887.01$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1688017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e28…cf34backed Yes7c847.78$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.531723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No48c836.05$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.3931242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1137…978dbacked Yes62c804.44$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.2410032%32 W · 68 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes60c797.42$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.559141.8%38 W · 53 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb11a…a80ebacked No79c758.49$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.392152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes35c700$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24521233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked No31c698.46$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.019733%32 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x898f…23f0backed No53c688.15$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.245735.1%20 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes80c685$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.9515017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed Yes36c661.65$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.0810036%36 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes46c641.68$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.7717919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes27c606.8$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.9450828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed No29c604.88$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.7322327.8%62 W · 161 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes52c595.09$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.824936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes27c571.69$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8126411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c5…e133backed Yes54c557.96$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes21c532.17$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1115909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes55c515.72$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.5919550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes19c504$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.762727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes12c502.15$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.262218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf1…6595backed No40c501.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.63545.7%16 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+81.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204626.1%12 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23524815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeecb…6166backed Yes72c500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No34c499.97$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.9841017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes78c498.81$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.0728534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae2f…3e2abacked Yes37c493.57$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.831926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d2f…1de9backed Yes74c483.58$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.173455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd254…9858backed No80c481.66$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.443450%17 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes50c462.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.76704.3%3 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-87.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes53c452.13$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.639626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9476…28bcbacked Yes47c450$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.511838.1%45 W · 73 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb036…5c79backed Yes62c443.84$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.182245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes31c443$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.547115.5%11 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No48c439.89$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.3468615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.