Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb60cb0ba47014c1a6329024c3ba74842726e1605ad288b9949b5ded9a89004c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $404,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,683 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 354 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 44c | 48,958$21,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,535.7 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…c76dbacked Yes | 0c | 45,178$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.42 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 48c | 16,664$7,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,998.75 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 59c | 14,813$8,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,669.83 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 49c | 12,606$6,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,373.66 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…5909backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 63c | 6,200$3,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,876.98 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 60c | 5,555$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 26c | 4,924$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.79 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 34c | 4,802$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.39 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed No | 55c | 4,676$2,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.17 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 58c | 4,124$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,390.5 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 3,406$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.33 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…6ca0backed Yes | 75c | 3,342$2,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,512 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 50c | 3,300$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.12 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 62c | 2,943$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.79 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 24c | 2,599$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.05 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 61c | 2,500$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.06 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed No | 41c | 2,312$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.76 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 41c | 2,311$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.76 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 29c | 2,200$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.49 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 42c | 2,100$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed No | 23c | 2,064$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.99 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 62c | 1,991$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.57 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 41c | 1,944$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 1,914$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.46 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 9c | 1,776$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +299.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 42c | 1,769$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.13 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 24c | 1,727$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.35 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…825fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,704$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 64c | 1,676$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.06 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 24c | 1,673$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.25 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,671$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.38 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 50c | 1,665$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.71 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 38c | 1,567$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.92 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,500$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…74d1backed Yes | 33c | 1,400$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 53c | 1,358$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.65 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 75c | 1,346$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.52 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 50c | 1,341$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.49 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,312$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.6 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 47c | 1,276$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.68 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 1,222$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.57 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 16c | 1,221$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.72 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,212$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 49c | 1,195$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.45 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 75c | 1,189$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.64 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…93eebacked Yes | 62c | 1,151$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.41 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 29c | 1,070$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.87 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 35c | 1,068$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x611b…9b3dbacked Yes | 34c | 1,064$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 22c | 1,054$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.17 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,023$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 19c | 1,003$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.56 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 72c | 1,000$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 15c | 996.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.53 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7a50backed Yes | 72c | 958.16$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 22c | 899.98$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.79 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed No | 44c | 893.26$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.63 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 51c | 887.91$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.83 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 25c | 887.01$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.16 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 7c | 847.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 48c | 836.05$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.39 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…978dbacked Yes | 62c | 804.44$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.24 | 100 | 32%32 W · 68 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 60c | 797.42$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.55 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a80ebacked No | 79c | 758.49$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 700$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 31c | 698.46$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.01 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…23f0backed No | 53c | 688.15$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.24 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 80c | 685$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.95 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 36c | 661.65$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.08 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 46c | 641.68$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.77 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 27c | 606.8$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.94 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed No | 29c | 604.88$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.73 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 52c | 595.09$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.82 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 27c | 571.69$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.81 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…e133backed Yes | 54c | 557.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 21c | 532.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 55c | 515.72$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.59 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 19c | 504$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 12c | 502.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…6595backed No | 40c | 501.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecb…6166backed Yes | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 34c | 499.97$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.98 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 78c | 498.81$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.07 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…3e2abacked Yes | 37c | 493.57$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.83 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…1de9backed Yes | 74c | 483.58$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.17 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…9858backed No | 80c | 481.66$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 50c | 462.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.76 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 53c | 452.13$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.63 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…28bcbacked Yes | 47c | 450$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb036…5c79backed Yes | 62c | 443.84$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes | 31c | 443$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 48c | 439.89$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.34 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.