Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33f6598d34a93b22de0ae62f3912b91c713bbc3932881eecc5d13176d235afbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,050 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 30,441$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,198$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 13,315$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.59 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 10,037$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 2c | 9,746$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 2c | 9,062$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 0c | 9,010$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 0c | 8,256$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 8,055$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.01 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 0c | 7,938$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 1c | 7,200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 3c | 6,994$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.31 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,834$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 1c | 6,018$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,374$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,093$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 137 | 18.2%25 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 5,023$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 5c | 3,300$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.12 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 2c | 3,237$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,577$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,480$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 1c | 2,462$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 2c | 2,426$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 2,344$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 2,226$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 2,181$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…e02abacked Yes | 2c | 1,849$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 108 | 6.5%7 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,828$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 1c | 1,714$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,550$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf5…fa29backed Yes | 5c | 1,464$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,371$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c0…c100backed Yes | 2c | 1,359$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,268$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…2c4dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,237$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 2c | 1,039$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…a3c1backed Yes | 4c | 859.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 2c | 852.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 2c | 840.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…0c5ebacked Yes | 4c | 756.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 7c | 742.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 737.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 2c | 680.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 5c | 632.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc595…df4cbacked Yes | 2c | 456.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 4c | 443.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 421.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 4c | 342.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 4c | 336$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 7c | 304.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 6c | 302.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 4c | 280$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2d…f60cbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…cd25backed Yes | 6c | 183.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.