Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x688ea9f0d304628a6236863641da9e8aa8355b3634d271dab191c4d89419ef46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $291,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $247,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ee…b403backed Yes | 0c | 48,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8b…fb0abacked Yes | 0c | 36,319$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 7c | 9,816$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.98 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 1c | 8,796$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 5c | 7,267$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.87 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 5,407$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 5c | 5,379$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.68 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 3c | 5,169$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.23 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 0c | 4,045$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 13c | 3,928$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.32 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 8c | 3,449$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.43 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 17c | 2,929$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.56 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 4c | 1,976$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,633$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 1,590$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,378$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.96 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 1,331$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.66 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 1,297$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 11c | 1,265$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.41 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 4c | 1,173$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 2c | 1,114$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45a…eac9backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 11c | 1,077$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 1,034$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 77c | 999.7$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.16 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f28…7d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 970$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 823.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 2c | 801.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38d…73a3backed Yes | 3c | 784.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 9c | 730.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 7c | 670.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 19c | 632.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 559.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 79c | 509.61$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.61 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 10c | 476.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 2c | 472.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6b…a962backed Yes | 11c | 463.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…4af5backed Yes | 11c | 344.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 19c | 313.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…8088backed Yes | 18c | 277$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 19c | 265.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed Yes | 13c | 243.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b28…d5ccbacked Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b27…7908backed Yes | 5c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14b…3810backed Yes | 22c | 198.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…5ffbbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f3…6a7ebacked Yes | 11c | 140.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44f…de3abacked Yes | 33c | 138$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…8448backed No | 68c | 133.44$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 14c | 131.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed Yes | 20c | 115.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…9c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…94eabacked Yes | 31c | 112.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 18c | 111.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 15c | 105.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 101.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes | 20c | 100.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 199 | 25.1%50 W · 149 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…3ecabacked Yes | 15c | 86.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…d388backed Yes | 35c | 84.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked No | 78c | 75.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 18c | 73.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…6316backed Yes | 17c | 59.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fb…554cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 80c | 28.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 21.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…3144backed No | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c71…d38cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…c478backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.