TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$333,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$308,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,008 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 326 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes28c9,202$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,554.8866222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes20c9,159$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.657222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes53c8,952$4,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,782.998321.7%18 W · 65 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes22c6,952$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51163414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes23c6,803$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.6340719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes25c6,523$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.0688018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No65c6,503$4,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,254.4913844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No69c6,059$4,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.159233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes27c5,578$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.2456429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes29c4,910$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.2357621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes25c4,773$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.1588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes20c4,757$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.921,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe823…2a61backed Yes11c4,608$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+97.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes29c4,526$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.1729227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes12c4,398$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.538812.5%11 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes13c4,380$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.515929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes30c3,596$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.228324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes27c3,433$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.9818419%35 W · 149 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes32c3,264$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.6753522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70ee…b403backed Yes22c3,210$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-48.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No70c2,864$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.2516941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No80c2,800$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.9716750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No72c2,800$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.7824155.6%134 W · 107 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes19c2,775$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.161,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No71c2,611$1,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.8213430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes20c2,501$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.323212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No68c2,466$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.367439.2%29 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa43e…ec90backed Yes8c2,406$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No55c2,272$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.631159.6%11 W · 104 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98d…5a68backed Yes9c2,173$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes36c2,135$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.3239723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c1,919$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.2630955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes20c1,872$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.4128016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes11c1,846$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.5931242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes18c1,810$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31923222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No67c1,688$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.6514451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf055…ccddbacked No60c1,650$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.89862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes39c1,592$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.0814625.3%37 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes41c1,422$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.1646137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes14c1,404$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1816023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes17c1,342$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.6118726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes24c1,319$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.5243719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes9c1,289$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6975122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2856…1ecdbacked Yes14c1,234$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.882729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No76c1,221$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.2616056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes29c1,210$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.516930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No65c1,190$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.4715844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes36c1,173$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.2331624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes24c1,099$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.361,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes25c1,050$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9527820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No30c1,050$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7358532.9%28 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes13c1,034$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6316427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes17c1,010$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1451410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes58c1,000$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.7370616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes12c1,000$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8414923.5%35 W · 114 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes26c1,000$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.1331722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed No48c999.99$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52022610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7de…537abacked Yes7c999.96$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704710.6%5 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+93.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed No76c991.13$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.0714427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes10c986.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.642176%13 W · 204 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f28…7d8ebacked Yes69c971.71$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.526421.9%14 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No43c938.16$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.146097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes5c899.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4818218.7%34 W · 148 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes27c865$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.759240.2%37 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes20c847.7$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5833231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No69c806.42$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.79654.2%52 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes10c783.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5621222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes32c780.74$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.0631621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes41c727.67$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.2321429.9%64 W · 150 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes15c697.47$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1827224.3%66 W · 206 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes52c657.98$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.326630.3%20 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes14c647.07$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5214050%70 W · 70 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed No64c629.49$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.4911417.5%20 W · 94 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes8c615.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2749…06edbacked Yes42c608.79$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.277432.4%24 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+84.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No77c591.28$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.065843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed No76c590.3$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.8810043%43 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes32c583.76$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9715136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked Yes29c580$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16612424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes9c569.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4946521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c569.22$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.218358.5%107 W · 76 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No64c548.37$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.0434039.7%135 W · 205 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes20c543.98$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3919930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes10c522$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7113917.3%24 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes40c520.55$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.7863821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes30c515$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7422325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes11c509.48$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6219229.2%56 W · 136 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes10c500.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7515221.1%32 W · 120 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee76…8fcebacked Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204517.8%8 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes17c500$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.520432.4%66 W · 138 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307626.3%20 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes6c499.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3062412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b27…7908backed Yes32c499.99$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.459727.8%27 W · 70 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes10c485$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5034833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x470b…0d90backed Yes7c482.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52835.7%10 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+80.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0df4…c7cbbacked No77c466$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.35567.3%37 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes30c464.25$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.626334.9%22 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4500…115dbacked Yes14c463.1$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.