Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46dbccb9e4fc23b0b59332c8debb45d3f79fc19797bc6d399333f8b1e00a3111

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $148,434
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,681

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,434 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	58,888$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.55	136	16.2%22 W · 114 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2193…5e65backed Yes	0c	6,549$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	4,846$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.64	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,947$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.68	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	2c	2,452$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.13	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	2,399$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.91	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db0…8c18backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	57.8%26 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	1,322$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.9	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes	1c	1,086$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.61	131	19.8%26 W · 105 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a6…87bebacked Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x282a…f2c5backed Yes	8c	908.47$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7312…a168backed Yes	7c	853.25$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.84	73	1.4%1 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	5cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	4c	845.65$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.39	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	2c	781.84$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.86	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	2c	740.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	2c	696.61$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.56	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	686.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.93	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes	2c	630.77$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	99	22.2%22 W · 77 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	628.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5001…bc10backed Yes	4c	600$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.7	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc7…653bbacked Yes	5c	552.42$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b89…e6d7backed Yes	4c	372.73$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes	6c	322.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	111	18.9%21 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff5…3fd6backed Yes	5c	253.37$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	6c	198.7$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7172…b910backed Yes	8c	176.8$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5999…83cabacked Yes	15c	168.16$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00ac…c678backed Yes	16c	116.59$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.31	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea3…4d87backed Yes	14c	93.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event