Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in May 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa6425f9ba44d6b18023e4500543bac417166e4ab12c2d5c2da5ddb5fabd5a06

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $75,611
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,611 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	7,093$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.71	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	4,622$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.59	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	1c	3,045$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.88	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	1c	1,800$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	6c	1,222$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.34	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes	1c	1,164$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.33	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34d…b5c3backed Yes	1c	1,133$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes	5c	1,059$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.94	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa135…6085backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-47%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	758.81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	695.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	629.21$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.69	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	556.94$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	4c	528.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.62	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	450.2$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.68	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	3c	406.54$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbabd…f4d2backed Yes	7c	400.45$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	6c	344.16$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.55	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	3c	314.28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf880…3628backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.93	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eaa…2b9cbacked Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	6c	248.7$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.15per pick	23cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in May 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event