Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4ea0b4f5d1cdbb304e97a13f98ff4ff29177cc19fc63837b8e1af1674559777

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $96,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,592 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	5,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	4,800$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.3	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	4,240$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.29	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	0c	4,086$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,572$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.83	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11c5…79d8backed Yes	1c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	3c	2,500$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.52	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa46f…87c3backed Yes	3c	2,122$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.57	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes	11c	1,500$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.41	184	19%35 W · 149 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c52…7e35backed Yes	2c	1,342$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	2c	1,214$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	899.29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	5c	872.78$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.24	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	852.97$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa81b…58cabacked Yes	4c	800.64$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	3c	765.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.11	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	7c	747.57$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.16	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	8c	689.43$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.4	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79c…94eabacked Yes	8c	599.76$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-5.9wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes	5c	564.08$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.21	131	19.8%26 W · 105 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…fe1bbacked Yes	8c	473.08$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	45	17.8%8 W · 37 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	6c	403.35$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.29	276	47.8%132 W · 144 L	+10.1wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4213…67f5backed Yes	3c	382.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes	6c	349.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	111	18.9%21 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes	4c	325.92$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.26	99	22.2%22 W · 77 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f4…ea54backed Yes	6c	325.66$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.74	128	28.1%36 W · 92 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	9c	301.08$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.61	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	288.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.79	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	7c	280.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	6c	270.77$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.34	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8848…8c30backed Yes	6c	267.65$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe409…561ebacked Yes	12c	226.6$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.06	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	5c	212.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f5…4807backed Yes	6c	199.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	10cpaid	+157.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	7c	190.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef6c…33efbacked Yes	7c	184.2$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaed6…cc4dbacked Yes	6c	183.84$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5999…83cabacked Yes	10c	151.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x107c…a071backed Yes	7c	150.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	59	20.3%12 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2818…4992backed Yes	10c	146.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	9cpaid	+138.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes	11c	121.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	160	13.1%21 W · 139 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68ec…7c22backed Yes	13c	110$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	11c	94.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event