Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fb7dabe04257b707acf5fb9c1d91920a9f6a37fa8ccbf3e588930643ea38bb7

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $85,338
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,486

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,338 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	15,672$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.67	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	1c	12,084$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.72	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	4,358$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.68	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	3c	2,104$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.12	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,810$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.22	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes	5c	1,020$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.14	160	13.1%21 W · 139 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	2c	1,008$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.87	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	3c	728.62$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.05	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes	3c	592.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	111	14.4%16 W · 95 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	8c	591.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.75	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	577.38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.02	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3007…8f81backed Yes	2c	562.85$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	11c	534.61$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.85	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe409…561ebacked Yes	6c	429.52$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes	3c	425.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.78	64	10.9%7 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0d…a0a3backed Yes	8c	372.48$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd9f…1540backed Yes	7c	274.06$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	5c	258.42$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes	6c	239.43$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	131	19.8%26 W · 105 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes	6c	185.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.15per pick	23cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf880…3628backed Yes	8c	157.61$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event