Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae04c6c44d78799ea3f43cc65111c72a9ca2ab4fa45806f58cf808070fb400b3

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $136,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $56,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,954 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	55,554$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c52…7e35backed Yes	1c	11,840$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.2	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	3,075$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.25	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	2,167$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.82	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	2c	1,968$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.47	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	1,085$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	928.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.07	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	6c	824.3$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.83	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	764.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.33	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	710.91$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.15	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7312…a168backed Yes	6c	707.78$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.79	73	1.4%1 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	5cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	2c	677.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.91	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	2c	666.82$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	633.72$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.24	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes	3c	549.94$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	99	22.2%22 W · 77 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	543.03$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	2c	532.83$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd14b…3810backed Yes	2c	497.97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+16%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61e…6906backed Yes	7c	450.88$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.56	43	18.6%8 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x774f…8779backed Yes	3c	426.93$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	6c	409.55$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80e…9cd7backed Yes	7c	404.98$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes	6c	400.42$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.04	83	42.2%35 W · 48 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes	4c	350$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	131	19.8%26 W · 105 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c6…a952backed Yes	3c	332.36$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94f4…ea54backed Yes	4c	330.26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	128	28.1%36 W · 92 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	4c	304.54$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.36	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes	7c	288.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	111	18.9%21 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	4c	286.41$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc7…653bbacked Yes	8c	249.4$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.08	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ff5…3fd6backed Yes	4c	229.54$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	4c	228$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5999…83cabacked Yes	10c	146.82$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event