Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab086d9aa51ae37e419c8f221f864efec092c0b795957da0b1e9562a46392878

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $245,227
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $166,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,227 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	0c	95,253$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.25	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf31a…8fbcbacked Yes	1c	15,000$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	11,533$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	2c	7,238$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.16	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	6,948$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.98	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	1c	4,559$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.76	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	2c	2,879$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.78	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	3c	2,087$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.88	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,069$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.81	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe409…561ebacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes	4c	897.68$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.73	111	14.4%16 W · 95 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	8c	649.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.75	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c45…398bbacked Yes	7c	608.62$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.32	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0d…a0a3backed Yes	7c	592.34$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.74	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	4c	552.01$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	506.09$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	500.47$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74bc…e4dabacked Yes	6c	475$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.75	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	4c	410$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f48…ebeabacked Yes	9c	362.22$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.49	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	4c	344.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf79c…94eabacked Yes	9c	339.88$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.05	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-5.9wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	9c	336.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.54	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e72…2fefbacked Yes	3c	334.32$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes	4c	327.61$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	64	10.9%7 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	5c	312.24$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	5c	304.36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.53	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9f…1540backed Yes	7c	303.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes	6c	201.32$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.15per pick	23cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf880…3628backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes	7c	196.87$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	160	13.1%21 W · 139 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event