Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda7e6bec00eb62d8a4cd40c2dec6c8fdf0dca05eb38f6adc09d40f20cd37d5d0

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $109,311
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $56,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,311 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	8,988$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.55	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	8,094$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.27	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	4,001$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.68	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	13c	3,000$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.56	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	2c	2,595$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.14	149	12.8%19 W · 130 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	1c	2,514$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.52	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	1c	2,209$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.87	77	27.3%21 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	5c	1,799$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.66	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89e1…5323backed Yes	2c	1,731$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.04	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa46f…87c3backed Yes	5c	1,687$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.87	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,514$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.26	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	14c	1,018$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.71	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	19c	1,004$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.18	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11c5…79d8backed Yes	2c	967.8$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	939.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.14	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	6c	813.23$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.23	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	14c	768.9$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.31	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f4…ea54backed Yes	7c	714.59$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.64	128	28.1%36 W · 92 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa81b…58cabacked Yes	9c	667.88$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes	8c	661.95$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.27	160	13.1%21 W · 139 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes	2c	618.44$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.91	99	22.2%22 W · 77 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7522…df3cbacked Yes	14c	601.25$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.46	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	18cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f5…4807backed Yes	5c	567.3$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	10cpaid	+157.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46a0…77a9backed Yes	19c	523.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	19c	448.71$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.12	145	13.8%20 W · 125 L	-8.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7db0…8c18backed No	80c	441$353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.2	45	57.8%26 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes	4c	400$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	13c	391.09$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	10c	390.07$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.07	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	384.29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	4c	366.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.02	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	6c	346.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed No	79c	325.11$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.78	312	24.7%77 W · 235 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes	8c	324.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	111	18.9%21 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee3…600ebacked Yes	8c	280.02$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	+3.7wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe409…561ebacked Yes	15c	261.34$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.99	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	11c	232.84$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.51	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes	9c	222.63$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	75	40%30 W · 45 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x045a…b9a4backed Yes	12c	216.3$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	20cpaid	+68.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	7c	210.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	275	47.6%131 W · 144 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765d…2e22backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes	22c	188.86$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.87	131	19.8%26 W · 105 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e0e…e6d1backed Yes	7c	186.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	18c	179.09$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.16	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec07…ca80backed Yes	14c	170.24$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.09	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes	13c	136.76$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.26	111	14.4%16 W · 95 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dd5…d861backed Yes	18c	135.08$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	35	20%7 W · 28 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2818…4992backed Yes	16c	127.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	9cpaid	+138.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26f3…350bbacked Yes	10c	106.73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8848…8c30backed Yes	11c	103.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.5	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a4d…71c6backed Yes	18c	96.36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ec…7c22backed Yes	14c	81.7$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.79	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab69…e2b7backed Yes	14c	79.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	45	26.7%12 W · 33 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes	20c	76.16$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.93	199	33.2%66 W · 133 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e3…d794backed Yes	19c	53.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	33cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e1…4c0abacked Yes	21c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	53	37.7%20 W · 33 L	+3.7wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No	80c	28.75$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.76	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	69cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	510	18.2%93 W · 417 L	-89.7wins	-0.18per pick	36cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event