Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75592d2622130664344647231e5b8c103893438631c39b5340161240df8940d2

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $141,019
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,019 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	55,555$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	11,028$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.17	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1225…e17fbacked Yes	11c	3,938$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	3,027$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.83	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,760$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.97	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	4c	2,446$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.28	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	2c	1,484$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.51	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	4c	1,008$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	831.2$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.89	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	6c	828.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.75	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes	3c	610.84$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.01	111	14.4%16 W · 95 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	527.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x923f…1346backed Yes	9c	465.06$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c45…398bbacked Yes	7c	448.59$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.83	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes	7c	400.52$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.64	160	13.1%21 W · 139 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	3c	379$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a5…71a5backed Yes	6c	316.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee98…113dbacked Yes	7c	300.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	280	34.3%96 W · 184 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	5c	275$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd56e…9457backed Yes	5c	211.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…486cbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event