Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41ed003f987683151eee0b52a1ef3c408225a390786620602f6d179f2df32fb7

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $87,713
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,713 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	22,221$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	2c	8,117$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.85	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	4,305$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.29	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,673$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.69	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	3c	2,499$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.64	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2475…32d6backed Yes	4c	2,203$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	3c	1,695$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.78	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	5c	829$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.68	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	3c	801.53$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	11c	798.64$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.41	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	6c	782.24$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.75	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a1…fa1abacked Yes	6c	708.44$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.55	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+193.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	683.97$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.63	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	3c	609.5$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes	2c	600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	111	14.4%16 W · 95 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes	4c	573.49$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.16	131	19.8%26 W · 105 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f6a…61f0backed Yes	4c	541.27$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.18	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74bc…e4dabacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9439…9d6fbacked Yes	5c	407.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c22…0c2cbacked Yes	4c	384.62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.43per pick	7cpaid	+427.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6763…b14fbacked Yes	34c	360$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.38	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+3.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	4c	348.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	6c	237.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7296…69f5backed Yes	8c	236.4$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.84	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9f…1540backed Yes	7c	211.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4eaa…2b9cbacked Yes	9c	202.8$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.71	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes	7c	200.1$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.15per pick	23cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes	8c	181.9$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0d…a0a3backed Yes	7c	173.62$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event