Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in May 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x187cacb4f8c5fa9431b8abafe271db19a3f064fe6fa32e3b0d894170b09d1c2d

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $75,760
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,656

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,760 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	2c	11,442$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.02	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	9,116$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.72	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	3c	3,159$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.66	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	3c	1,782$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.76	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,760$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.51	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	1c	1,555$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.07	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	3c	675.93$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.05	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f6a…61f0backed Yes	7c	630.59$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.81	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	8c	600.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.75	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67d3…b524backed Yes	4c	545.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe409…561ebacked Yes	5c	539.18$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	534.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.66	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c45…398bbacked Yes	6c	532.58$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.84	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed Yes	9c	511.04$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea6c…79e7backed Yes	6c	482.76$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x923f…1346backed Yes	9c	463.57$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	6c	433.96$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	433.46$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	3c	416$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11c5…79d8backed Yes	5c	404.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	3c	397.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	6c	384.01$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.81	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes	4c	368.62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	83	42.2%35 W · 48 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes	3c	331.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes	4c	323.55$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	64	10.9%7 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	6c	313.58$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes	8c	301.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.57	160	13.1%21 W · 139 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a5…71a5backed Yes	7c	269.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	4c	267.44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74bc…e4dabacked Yes	6c	250$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ede…47fabacked Yes	4c	249.18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe153…6b4abacked Yes	7c	220$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	208.32$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.97	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.14	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.15per pick	23cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8376…bc45backed Yes	8c	131.58$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+371.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 740-759 tweets in May 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event