Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x204594f80ea51049f285bf770c43864b1f966d12c308cefa4d26c2a8f9f64196

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $151,298
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,298 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	1c	12,976$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.23	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	3c	8,919$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.05	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes	3c	6,000$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182	148	29.1%43 W · 105 L	+6.6wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	5c	5,081$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.52	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	2c	4,036$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.35	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	3,591$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.05	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	2c	3,478$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.7	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,020$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.24	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	1c	2,571$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.68	77	27.3%21 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	2c	2,500$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.68	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	1c	1,457$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.21	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	1,128$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.25	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	8c	1,104$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	4c	1,026$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.92	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d7…1218backed Yes	3c	939.11$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.86	160	13.1%21 W · 139 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	7c	935.51$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.65	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	6c	864.38$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.43	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eaa…2b9cbacked Yes	3c	824.57$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.75	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	6c	794.9$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.16	124	9.7%12 W · 112 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f6a…61f0backed Yes	8c	755.58$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.5	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	2c	710.42$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	698.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11c5…79d8backed Yes	6c	660.85$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	4c	581.69$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.13	121	14%17 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41be…5f38backed Yes	7c	572.71$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.97	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	523.42$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes	4c	505.61$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6904…ea7ebacked Yes	4c	502.74$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.76	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed Yes	8c	502$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes	6c	481.5$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.85	345	15.9%55 W · 290 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46a0…77a9backed Yes	9c	462.04$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes	2c	452.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	99	22.2%22 W · 77 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67d3…b524backed Yes	4c	435.48$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04fa…1ff3backed Yes	4c	429.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.53	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	3c	425.69$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.71	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes	3c	400.46$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	9c	400$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.42	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bec…2618backed Yes	9c	396.69$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	6c	372.73$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.21	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0815…6023backed Yes	8c	366.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	365.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69c9…3b29backed Yes	9c	325.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c45…398bbacked Yes	4c	305.84$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.93	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f5…4807backed Yes	5c	300.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	10cpaid	+157.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes	7c	278.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	111	18.9%21 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a5…71a5backed Yes	8c	261.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	7c	245.06$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.16	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes	4c	228.38$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.42per pick	8cpaid	+346.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.15per pick	23cpaid	-84.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	5c	193.7$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ab6…6099backed Yes	9c	173.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	67	28.4%19 W · 48 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83cf…f6bbbacked Yes	6c	169.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbaac…ff10backed Yes	7c	166.56$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-4.1wins	-0.18per pick	32cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event