TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf880…3628

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Tennis, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 52 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+495%+$166.24
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.15
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.61
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.92
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.93
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$20.52
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.69
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.24
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.47
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.89
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.71
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+407.4%+$54.59
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.03
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.62
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+543.6%+$54.9
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.96
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.14
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$18.2
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinskibacked Gustavo Heide · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.