Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e0791cd65b4d5b28b44e2a9acfed4c3abdbe488ed6e8bf2125cf99c7d2cb32b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x860d…6071backed No | 70c | 899.73$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.04 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 13c | 891.33$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.76 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…de68backed Yes | 7c | 703.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 176 | 12.5%22 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 15c | 395.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71e2…147abacked Yes | 5c | 334.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes | 24c | 331.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 24c | 275.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed Yes | 44c | 209$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…2551backed Yes | 18c | 208.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes | 23c | 204.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…8034backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 9c | 194.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 175.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked No | 66c | 174.56$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…bb3fbacked Yes | 62c | 160.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 31c | 155.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 54c | 136.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed Yes | 50c | 102.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…8da1backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…21b9backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…e651backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 93.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 76c | 90.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 85.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…b6c7backed Yes | 23c | 79.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf880…3628backed Yes | 22c | 74.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 67.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c8…0af5backed Yes | 22c | 66.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…e06abacked Yes | 67c | 63.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…6bd2backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…9179backed Yes | 38c | 58.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 23c | 55.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…ff6ebacked Yes | 27c | 54.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 53c | 54.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cd…ba23backed Yes | 21c | 51.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a41…2c3ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe298…9ef4backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d1…935dbacked Yes | 30c | 36.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 31c | 36.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 70c | 35.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…a8aabacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ba…e190backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe43…7c3bbacked No | 73c | 28.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…f810backed No | 77c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.