TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,298
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,193

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,298 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b9…b6a8backed Yes29c537.72$155 inLost-$155.221225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes25c404.24$99 inLost-$99.4224732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No76c257.45$196 inWon+$6162539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes6c209.49$13 inLost-$12.69603.3%2 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-78.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes20c132.18$26 inLost-$26.236113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ab…8a17backed No71c112.32$79 inWon+$32.971735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes28c104$29 inLost-$29.4411637.1%43 W · 73 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes16c103.15$17 inLost-$16.9522926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7455…0432backed Yes20c100.07$20 inLost-$205236.5%19 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+30.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No80c94.43$75 inWon+$19.0614575.9%110 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes35c93.01$33 inLost-$32.9511730.8%36 W · 81 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No76c90.28$68 inWon+$21.8533670.2%236 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26d8…be73backed Yes20c75$15 inLost-$153327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b4…2d43backed No69c73.91$51 inWon+$22.64537.8%17 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes15c69.25$11 inLost-$10.645598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No76c60$45 inWon+$14.6426461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes26c59.24$15 inLost-$15.4351018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes28c58$16 inLost-$16.2410330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c50.1$38 inWon+$12.5251845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked No62c41.16$26 inWon+$15.537915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c30$24 inWon+$6.324155.6%134 W · 107 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No58c28$16 inWon+$11.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No50c22.53$11 inWon+$11.3421857.8%126 W · 92 L+0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No77c20.61$16 inWon+$4.835066%33 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d7…f810backed No79c20$16 inWon+$4.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb4…f3a4backed No77c19.9$15 inWon+$4.566100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb98…0f80backed Yes76c19.74$15 inLost-$156241.9%26 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.