Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeddf697504914256794fa70f306b57647ea7f1ca0cc160cc7fa3f122bdc12b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $431,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $421,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 302 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x064b…eae5backed No | 19c | 16,208$3,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,046.84 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 9c | 14,668$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.13 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked No | 2c | 14,141$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.59 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 7c | 11,668$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.17 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 11c | 11,535$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.16 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 9c | 9,052$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 52c | 5,644$2,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.72 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 11c | 5,265$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.19 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed No | 6c | 4,947$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.2 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 16c | 4,812$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.71 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 35c | 4,414$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.54 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 4,106$2,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.83 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 65c | 4,048$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.04 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 27c | 4,048$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.13 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 3c | 3,885$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.86 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 29c | 3,840$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.77 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 72c | 3,604$2,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.66 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 16c | 3,455$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.78 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 30c | 3,246$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,271.42 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed No | 7c | 3,120$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.7 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 11c | 2,626$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.59 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 14c | 2,622$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.7 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…6906backed No | 2c | 2,597$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.99 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 2,443$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.39 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 6c | 2,225$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed No | 12c | 2,030$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.11 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…2234backed Yes | 39c | 1,929$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,893$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…3cf1backed No | 3c | 1,800$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 33c | 1,695$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.8 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 1,637$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.68 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,600$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.01 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 4c | 1,500$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 34c | 1,500$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.28 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 71c | 1,491$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.12 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 66c | 1,470$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.82 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 39c | 1,389$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.52 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…c2a0backed No | 75c | 1,388$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.78 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 31c | 1,370$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.65 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked No | 11c | 1,345$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.07 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…765abacked Yes | 79c | 1,332$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 24c | 1,288$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.84 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…9cb5backed Yes | 35c | 1,233$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.16 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 38c | 1,215$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.01 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 13c | 1,178$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.79 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 25c | 1,151$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.59 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 6c | 1,100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 14c | 1,097$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.58 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…3559backed No | 6c | 1,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed No | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.99 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…61f4backed Yes | 30c | 998.08$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 8c | 990.78$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 75c | 989.63$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.53 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 7c | 934.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed No | 3c | 900$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 19c | 894.59$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.62 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 76c | 849.11$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.05 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 838.66$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.5 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked No | 6c | 833.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 3c | 800$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 27c | 785.08$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.12 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 12c | 760$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…9c28backed Yes | 26c | 745.13$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.1 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 40c | 741.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.9 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 24c | 699.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.99 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed No | 2c | 695$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 59c | 687.17$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.96 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 684.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…d319backed No | 75c | 674.93$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.4 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…e133backed Yes | 59c | 674$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.59 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed No | 9c | 645.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 41c | 619.94$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.17 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 20c | 600.65$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.2 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 39c | 571.95$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.6 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 560.2$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.53 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 5c | 558.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…4dcabacked Yes | 36c | 553.59$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.4 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed No | 14c | 548.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 41c | 532.09$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.21 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 36c | 526.31$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.31 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…136dbacked No | 63c | 518.84$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.87 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 9c | 517.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…8ae1backed No | 75c | 512$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 68c | 498.35$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.33 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…7442backed Yes | 19c | 496.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +429.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…5502backed Yes | 62c | 495.33$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes | 79c | 492.98$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 218 | 27.1%59 W · 159 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f4…16f3backed No | 10c | 491.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 30c | 481.56$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.16 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed No | 42c | 478.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 12c | 474.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…a4c2backed No | 27c | 473.77$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.63 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 473.05$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.46 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 32c | 471.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.18 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb06…ca56backed No | 19c | 467.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.