Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0147dbb14b809904fb0d438ef7e61a59b6a01a8fcd4f6997c820514d8262d254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41c1…dbd2backed Yes | 3c | 1,646$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 1,631$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,464$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 1,236$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 16c | 1,052$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.23 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 26c | 1,006$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.86 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 2c | 887.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 728.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 7c | 704.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 12c | 702.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 8c | 699.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 9c | 643.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 621.44$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 585.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 12c | 570.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 2c | 550$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 10c | 458.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 36c | 419.52$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.02 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 15c | 367.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 343.79$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…34cebacked Yes | 16c | 338.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…3081backed Yes | 16c | 337.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 337.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 12c | 324.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 319.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 308.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 19c | 303.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 11c | 302.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 51c | 299.74$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.77 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 61c | 287.92$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 10c | 281.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 13c | 261.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 9c | 260$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 10c | 245.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 17c | 242.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 23c | 232.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 10c | 220.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 214.92$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed Yes | 16c | 212.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 16c | 212.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 17c | 195.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 177.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…423dbacked Yes | 54c | 175.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 156.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 21c | 153.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 41c | 151.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed Yes | 14c | 149.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 12c | 147.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 23c | 138.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 13c | 136.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 8c | 130.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…7b38backed Yes | 24c | 114.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +59%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 28c | 112.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218b…625abacked Yes | 17c | 108.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 21c | 107.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 98.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 12c | 90.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 17c | 89.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 58c | 85.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 17c | 81.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 22c | 79.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 70c | 72.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 55c | 50.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 49c | 34.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.