Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc91437a1fca62921218bb32bf4aa7384acdcf073e8a80582fd9b97f1b8dac6ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 1,110$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.79 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 7c | 535$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 33c | 491.16$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 423.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 40c | 351.48$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.02 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed Yes | 31c | 334.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 20c | 315.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 35c | 307.16$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.13 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 33c | 284.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed No | 69c | 282.84$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.27 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 17c | 259.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 7c | 254.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 68c | 247.59$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 218.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 24c | 213.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 189.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 21c | 160.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 153.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 38c | 145.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 31c | 139.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 38c | 136.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 18c | 133.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…43dcbacked Yes | 36c | 133.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 75c | 128.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 18c | 127.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 38c | 122.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed No | 76c | 120.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 24c | 116.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 11c | 113.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 39c | 100.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 99.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 70c | 99.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 73c | 98.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 11c | 97.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 14c | 97.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 44c | 96.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 95.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 46c | 92.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 64c | 89.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 86.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 84.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…a259backed Yes | 27c | 80.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 76.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 34c | 76.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebf…ff4abacked No | 67c | 75.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 37c | 74.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 38c | 70.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 35c | 62.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 66c | 58.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 31c | 57.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked No | 68c | 56.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 67c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 23c | 50.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…bd30backed Yes | 38c | 48.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +118%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 33c | 48.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed No | 66c | 48.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e8…3175backed Yes | 22c | 47.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 65c | 40.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e9…59f9backed Yes | 35c | 39.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 74c | 39.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…2acbbacked Yes | 54c | 35.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 66c | 35.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…514bbacked Yes | 38c | 32.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 71c | 31.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 30.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked No | 62c | 30.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 42c | 30.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes | 35c | 29.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 66c | 29.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…d768backed Yes | 37c | 28.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 27.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 63c | 27.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 27.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 24.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 62c | 24.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeccf…858cbacked No | 74c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 71c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 63c | 20.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…4a3cbacked No | 74c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 17.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…bc23backed No | 68c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153f…cb70backed No | 67c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.