Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24fa8460cd6cf7b952cb5b83805bdfe162f6e07a59276342c171631c34888b13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 78c | 1,949$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.45 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 1,203$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 64c | 981$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.72 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed No | 34c | 756.75$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.01 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 45c | 717.55$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.65 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 49c | 696.36$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.57 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 46c | 577.69$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.53 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 50c | 500.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…8605backed No | 3c | 406.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked No | 15c | 402.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 56c | 394.07$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.63 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…dbd2backed No | 3c | 381.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 8c | 313.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 310.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 78c | 259.94$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed Yes | 41c | 246.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.56 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 69c | 228.88$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.06 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 52c | 219.51$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 11c | 179.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.37 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 42c | 175.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 55c | 174.44$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 67c | 167.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 37c | 167.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 52c | 166.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…c3b0backed No | 9c | 166.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 41c | 159.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 37c | 159.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.22 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 27c | 154.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…545dbacked No | 55c | 154.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 45c | 145.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…4302backed Yes | 49c | 142.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…7760backed Yes | 40c | 142.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 72c | 135.15$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 56c | 132.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 38c | 131.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 130.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 128.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 37c | 118.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 69c | 115.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 112.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 44c | 107.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…43dcbacked Yes | 46c | 102.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 46c | 102.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 60c | 97.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed No | 58c | 91.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 52c | 87.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 38c | 87.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 54c | 86.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 26c | 83.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 58c | 82.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 57c | 79.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218b…625abacked Yes | 71c | 78.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 78.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 77.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 22c | 76.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 48c | 75.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…cac7backed No | 62c | 73.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 53c | 70.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 47c | 66.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 64.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 63.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 23c | 60.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 37c | 59.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 47c | 57.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 62c | 57.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 50c | 57.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 45c | 57.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e07…13b0backed Yes | 74c | 56.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 46c | 53.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 55c | 52.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2312…8ae7backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736a…26f0backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 45c | 49.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…bd30backed Yes | 38c | 49.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +118%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 59c | 46.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 63c | 45.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 50c | 45.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 60c | 45.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 29c | 41.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 74c | 40.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d83…48f8backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 52c | 35.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 61c | 35.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 48c | 34.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 34.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 63c | 34.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.