Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa69dc6e1e3ff67321ef08a66131b8ea974a95cbfe11c25952e7e60230c92299c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 10c | 656.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 59c | 525.51$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.9 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 74c | 502.1$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.23 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…da77backed Yes | 51c | 316.43$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 246.15$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 216$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 45c | 198.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 157.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 41c | 133.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 41c | 133.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 77c | 120.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 116.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 78c | 113.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 32c | 106.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed No | 69c | 100.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 13c | 99.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 50c | 98.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 89.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…b4b0backed Yes | 41c | 89.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 87.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 45c | 87.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 81.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 28c | 81.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…44cbbacked Yes | 51c | 75.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 73.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 52c | 70.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 20c | 70.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 67.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 37c | 51.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 48c | 48.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 46.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 26c | 46.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 67c | 44.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 44.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 47c | 43.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 58c | 42.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 40c | 42.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 64c | 38.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 37.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a4…d89fbacked Yes | 41c | 36.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 64c | 33.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…130ebacked Yes | 44c | 32.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed Yes | 33c | 31.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 45c | 30.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 40c | 30.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…e7b8backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 67c | 29.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…28e0backed Yes | 49c | 23.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 55c | 23.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 54c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed No | 60c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.