Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40d43b6adbf0285dad35dc5cfa597c23882e5631e8212c899634be64728fd698

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,071,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,071,637 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 519 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	43,869$2,286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,285.69	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	5c	39,190$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000.33	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes	0c	31,000$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	8c	28,055$2,128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,128.24	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	1c	23,587$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.17	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	2c	22,359$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.94	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	19,644$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	6c	19,074$1,149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,148.88	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	10c	14,423$1,458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,457.59	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	4c	14,076$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.84	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	14,058$1,315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,314.87	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	5c	13,960$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.26	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa1…256dbacked Yes	1c	13,203$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.61	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8402…bfa4backed Yes	8c	10,800$863 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$862.73	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	11c	10,282$1,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,165.44	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22e9…8dd0backed Yes	7c	10,167$663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$663	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	5c	10,036$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.82	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	7c	9,662$667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$667.19	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e3…f58dbacked Yes	4c	9,375$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.23	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	8,741$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.45	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fed…a1f9backed Yes	0c	8,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e8d…d730backed Yes	9c	7,671$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45b8…2204backed Yes	2c	7,590$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.46	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	5c	7,443$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.07	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	10c	7,276$713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	9c	7,102$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$641.58	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	10c	7,100$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.86	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	4c	6,872$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.07	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cff…53b5backed Yes	15c	6,717$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	13c	6,539$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850.06	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	5c	6,286$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.28	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	4c	6,280$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.72	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	6,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.4	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes	6c	5,805$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.95	130	23.1%30 W · 100 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	5,700$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.6	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	8c	5,647$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.05	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	5,392$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.49	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes	0c	5,103$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	69	40.6%28 W · 41 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	5c	4,984$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.86	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	11c	4,931$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.1	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	4c	4,783$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.49	79	13.9%11 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	4c	4,715$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.95	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	13c	4,500$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604.1	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	3c	4,400$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.04	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	6c	4,350$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.31	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	5c	4,167$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.35	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	4,046$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.21	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	5c	3,827$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.43	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb171…39eebacked Yes	12c	3,797$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.48	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f25…66bfbacked Yes	4c	3,741$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed Yes	9c	3,622$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.02	45	26.7%12 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bc4…cc49backed Yes	7c	3,458$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.65	80	46.3%37 W · 43 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	4c	3,352$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.82	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	15c	3,333$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Yes	8c	3,274$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.72	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-72.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	2c	3,208$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes	11c	3,175$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.21	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	3,171$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.97	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	8c	3,150$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.31	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	6c	3,056$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.76	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	3,007$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.95	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	7c	3,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	8c	3,000$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.05	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,983$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.68	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9d…c67cbacked Yes	7c	2,970$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.37	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	13c	2,949$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.32	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	2,893$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes	7c	2,805$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	4c	2,791$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.79	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	7c	2,713$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.12	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	2,702$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.03	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	8c	2,695$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.6	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d9…5084backed Yes	4c	2,593$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.96	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8815…438dbacked Yes	8c	2,572$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.67	56	19.6%11 W · 45 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	2,554$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.45	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes	1c	2,547$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.18	143	8.4%12 W · 131 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	10c	2,538$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.25	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes	20c	2,520$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	84	25%21 W · 63 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	9c	2,496$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.45	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	5c	2,431$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.56	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf10…8e43backed Yes	12c	2,406$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.19per pick	10cpaid	+237.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	5c	2,395$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.56	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	5c	2,300$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.72	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d79…268fbacked Yes	6c	2,279$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.36	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cea…a932backed Yes	7c	2,265$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.45	89	25.8%23 W · 66 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab8…3e81backed Yes	8c	2,254$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.89	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7dc…b33dbacked Yes	11c	2,149$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.4	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	2,100$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.87	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	5c	2,096$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x260c…4fbcbacked Yes	5c	2,094$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	5c	2,056$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.33	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xec87…47cebacked Yes	8c	2,013$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.76	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	7c	2,000$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7f…0380backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	4c	2,000$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.3	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x801c…a025backed Yes	12c	2,000$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.62	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	4c	1,988$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.95	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event